While the re-direct is still in the process, some of you may still find your way here to RotoBuzz.com.  But the changeover has taken place and from now on, RotoBuzz will be known as The Fantasy Baseball Buzz.  It’s a completely different URL so you’ll have to make the changes in your “Favorites” section and your RSS feeds, but the content is just the same.  The look and feel of the site will be new, but it’s still me, giving the same high quality advice and insights into the fantasy baseball world.  Hopefully this transition process will be as seamless as possible, but on the chance that it’s not, thank you all for staying with me.

     So come on over to The Fantasy Baseball Buzz!!  It’s your number one source for free fantasy baseball advice!  I’ll be doing reviews of all the fantasy baseball magazines, updating all of the 2010 fantasy baseball player rankings, bust out some fantasy baseball sleepers for you, evaluate the 2010 fantasy baseball rookies, and give you as much fantasy baseball help that I can to assist you in building a first rate fantasy baseball strategy and guide you to your fantasy baseball league’s championship!

     Thanks for reading and enjoy the new site!

RotoBuzz Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings

Top 200

     Remember, For the best in free fantasy baseball advice, 2010 fantasy baseball player rankings, fantasy baseball draft help, and fantasy baseball strategy, stick with Rotobuzz.com and I’ll have you at the top of your standings in no time.

     Good luck and I’ll see you all in the money this year!

     So with that, it’s time to start making lists of potential late round steals;  players to watch during Spring Training that your competition may not be following just yet.  Keeping tabs on position battles, rising stars and even players who may start in the minors but have the potential of hitting the majors by midseason is integral to your fantasy baseball draft prep.  We’re talking fantasy baseball sleepers here.  Anyone can scour the waiver wire during the season, but it’s the savvy owner, and usually the winner of your league, that finds these players late in the draft before anyone else has a chance to pick them up.  And as one of your fantasy baseball reference points, it’s time I started sharing some of my lists with you.  To start, here are 5 guys that I’ll be tracking this Spring with the hopes of snagging them late in my draft and using them to win another championship this year.

Julio Borbon, OF  TEX –  It’s tough for me to really call Borbon a sleeper now that every fantasy baseball magazine and website has his name and picture plastered all over the place.  But, believe it or not, there are still those that don’t know him.  Borbon was a late season call-up last year and he dazzled with his .312 average and 19 steals in just 157 at bats.  Dazzled with his .376 OBP and 30 runs scored in just 46 games.  He was the consummate leadoff hitter that the Rangers hoped Elvis Andrus would be and they loved him so much that the team already has him penciled in as their starting center fielder for 2010.  If you’re concerned that maybe last year was a fluke, think again, and check out his minor league totals.  In 231 career minor league games he’s got a .310 average with a .360 OBP and since 2008 where he started all the way down in High-A ball he racked up 78 SB before his promotion to the bigs.  With any luck he won’t be as high profile this spring, but will just maintain enough to keep the Rangers confident in him.  That way, he stays off other people’s radar and you can grab him later in the draft.

Kevin Slowey, SP  MIN –  I love the way this guy has stayed off people’s radar the last couple of years and the trend should continue this season as a wrist injury prevented him from taking the next step in 2009.  In ‘08, Slowey notched 12 wins with 123 Ks in just over 160 innings while keeping his ERA just under 4.  He also had a fantastic 1.16 WHIP, a 6.9 K/9 rate and a BB/9 rate of just 1.4.  But the wrist injury, which resulted in surgery and plenty of time lost, hampered him to the tune of a 4.89 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP in just over 90 innings.  But if you look a little deeper into his ‘09 numbers, you’ll notice that he actually improved to a 7.4 K/9 rate and had virtually the same BB/9 rate as well (1.5).  With the wrist healthy and a fresh start in 2010, I expect Slowey to take the step forward that he should have taken in 2009.  Last year’s totals will knock him down on most people’s draft boards, so you’ll be able to swoop in nice and late.    

Eugenio Velez, 2B/OF –  There are several reasons to keep Velez on your radar this spring.  First and foremost, he’s the only guy in the Giants starting lineup with wheels and will start the season atop a revamped and slightly stronger batting order.  But there’s more to him than just being the default speed guy on an unusually sluggish team.  After being demoted in the first half, Velez was summoned again in late July where he showed that things were finally coming together.  In fact, since his return he hit .277 (.321 OBP) with 5 HR and 10 steals.  The numbers aren’t eye-popping but they’re certainly worth noting as something to build upon.  He still qualifies at second but is slated to play right field this season, so the position flexibility will be a nice asset.  Barring a complete meltdown, Velez should remain with the club all season and hopefully will be able to put together a 25+ SB year with a half dozen HR. 

Justin Masterson, SP  CLE –  For the most part, the only people in your league that could still be tracking this guy are your hardcore Red Sox fans and since we know what those guys are all about, you probably won’t have to worry.  Masterson was a key component in the Victor Martinez deal last year and while his overall numbers looked atrocious (4-10, 4.52 ERA, 1.52 WHIP) he is definitely going to blossom into a quality starter.  He’s got a nice low three-quarter arm delivery, a ridiculous sinker that keeps hitters off balance and induces a tremendous amount of ground balls.  Another reason to keep him in your sights is that there are rumors of him supplanting Kerry Wood as the closer this year.  I’d prefer him in the rotation, but he could establish himself as a dominant 9th inning guy if the opportunity presents itself.  Masterson will likely start getting noticed in the spring, so when people bring him up, talk about his 1-7 record and 1.59 WHIP in 10 starts with the Tribe last year and keep the 8.19 K/9 rate a nice little secret for yourself.

Logan Morrison, 1B  FLA — I feel very relieved that I can include this pick here now that the rumors of a Marlins offer to Russell Branyan have been disspelled.  While everyone last year was hyping up Gaby Sanchez, Morrison was falling off of everyone’s radar.  Obviously, the wrist injury that wiped out his entire 2009 also had something to do with it, but he’s become a forgotten prospect and that could be good news for you.  Barring the signing of a veteran, Morrison and Sanchez should battle this spring for the starting job and I think the job will eventually go Morrison’s way.  He’s got better power potential than Sanchez and has the ability to hit for a high average while drawing plenty of walks.  Quality plate discipline is crucial for a young player who wants to crack a lineup and Morrison’s 48 to 64 strikeout to walk rate should get him the edge.  He also hit 24 HR in just 453 AB in 2007 and while the power decreased last year (again, due to the wrist), he should continue to develop.  I’m sensing a big rebound and possible breakout year for him.

     So there’s a few to get you started right now and I’ll be back with more installments throughout the spring.  There are plenty more fantasy sleepers out there.  Good scouting is key to your fantasy baseball success, so stay on top of things and you’ll reap the benefits by season’s end.

     Remember, For the best in free fantasy baseball advice, 2010 fantasy baseball player rankings, fantasy baseball draft help, and fantasy baseball strategy, stick with Rotobuzz.com and I’ll have you at the top of your standings in no time.

     Good luck and I’ll see you all in the money this year!

MLB Free Agent Signings

Orlando Cabrera, SS CIN — While it really hasn’t been confirmed just yet, a source inside the Reds told MLB.com that Cabrera is about to sign a 1 year, $3M contract to play in Cincinnati.  There’s also word of an option on 2011, but details haven’t been given.  While it might be a defensive downgrade for the Reds to go from Paul Janish to Cabrera, fantasy owners have to be happy about the move.  His power over the last few years has all but dried up, but Cabrera had an outstanding September last year and was an integral performer in the Twins run for the playoffs.  He’s still got something left in the tank.  Cabrera should hit second in the lineup and gets a much friendlier ballpark to call home;  not to mention, his veteran presence could have a positive impact ont he younger guys who will be learning from him.

Melvin Mora, 3B  COL — If it wasn’t for good ol’ Craig Counsell, Mora (37) would be the oldest utility man in the majors these days.  According to FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal on Twitter, Mora has signed a 1 year deal worth about $1.3M.  He’ll spell the infielders all over the diamond, but will likely be more of a late inning pinch hitter with youngsters like Ian Stewart and Troy Tulowitzki playing the left side of the infield while Eric Young, Jr. backs up Clint Barmes at second.  Mora’s value is pretty low right now and should be nothing but a waiver pickup later on in the season if/when an injury occurs.

Eric Byrnes, OF  SEA — Remember when this guy stole 50 bases in 2007 and was climbing draft boards like crazy in ‘08?  Wow, have things changed in the last 2 years.  Between injuries and younger, more productive up and comers, Byrnes found himself on the outs in Arizona and was given his walking papers in the offseason.  So Byrnes signs a one year deal (likely for the league minimum) and gets to play 4th outfielder for the Mariners.  Actually, he’s probably going to compete with Michael Saunders for the job this spring, so there’s no guarantee that he’ll even see time this season.  My guess is his days as a fantasy asset are long gone.

Fernando Tatis, 1B  NYM — I guess Carlos Delgado wasn’t looking so good for Puerto Rico as the Mets have made their move re-signing Tatis to a one year deal.  This puts a damper on thoughts that the team would bring back Delgado for one more year and also puts a damper on things for fantasy owners as the Mets first base situation looks to be a platoon between Tatis and Daniel Murphy.  If you’re looking for a little bit of bench help, then maybe one of these guys will outshine the other, but when it comes to my fantasy baseball draft, I won’t be looking at either.

Xavier Nady, OF  CHC — Now I’m not a 100% that I didn’t report on this earlier, but I know I posted it on my Twitter account.  With Nady signing a 1 year, $3.3M contract with the Cubs, it almost ensures that the outfield will be a shared situation.  Alfonso Soriano is a lock to start but has been hampered with plenty of injuries these last few years, Marlon Byrd was a huge over-achiever last year for the Rangers, and we all know how streaky and often unreliable Kosuke Fukudome has become.  Nady will almost certainyl steal at bats from each of them making the Cubs outfielders a little less appealing come draft day.

Jim Edmonds, OF  MIL — OK, so it’s hard to even type all of this with a straight face, but yes, you did read that correctly…Jim Edmonds has signed a deal with the Brewers.  It’s just a minor league contract, but apparently the team has told him that he will get a chance to play everyday against right handers.  I’m a little skeptical about it, but if anyone could still have some stick left after a full year of retiurement, it would be Edmonds.  Secretly though, I’m hating this because I was tabbing Carlos Gomez as a fantasy sleeper this season.  Now it looks like that pick could be headed down the toilet.

Jose Contreras, SP  PHI — A one year, $1.5M contract comes just in the nick of time as the former Cuban defector was starting to investigate a move to Japan this year.  I don’t really know what to say other than stay away from him in your fantasy baseball league.  He’ll likely end up in the bullpen, but even so, I just don’t see him doing anything to help you out this year and beyond. 

MLB Rumors

Reed Johnson, OF — His name has been on the back burner for some time now as the last real rumors we heard were of Johnson being courted by the Yankees back in late December.  But with Randy Winn signing with the Bombers, Johnson has had to sniff around elsewhere, most notably, these days, with the Dodgers.  Johnson would work very nicely for L.A. as a right handed bat off the bench and late inning defensive replacement for Manny Ramirez, but unless there’s a major injutry, it doesn’t look like his fantasy value would increase at all with a move to SoCal.

Garrett Anderson, OF — Another guy whose name is being linked to the Dodgers.  Johnson would be a better fit as he has more to offer with his ability to play the field, but if the Dodgers are just looking for a bat off the bench, Anderson could prove to be a better choice for the team over Johnson and current 4th OF on the depth charts, Jason Repko.  Fantasy wise, Anderson’s value would drop even lower than it was last season with the Braves.

Johnny Damon, OF – With rumors swirling that Damon turned down a 1 year, $6M offer from the Yankees, I’m not really understanding what his contract expectations are right now.  Word on the street is that the A’s have started to lose interest and there’s nothing new in the mill about a possible move to Tampa Bay.  The Rays would be a nice fit, I think, although a move over to right field in place of Matt Joyce would be the case, and Damon’s arm isn’t nearly that good to take over in right.  There’s the possibility of Pat Burrell playing right and Damon DHing, but that’s probably worse, defensively speaking.  The market is slowing down for outfielders right now, so we may not even get resolution on this until the spring starts.

Gabe Gross, OF — With the A’s interest in Damon cooling, it looks like the team is content to go with a starting outfield of Rajai Davis, Coco Crisp and Ryan Sweeney.  That being said, the team is now looking to upgrade their bench depth and could be zeroing in on th eformer Rays right fielder.  If this does happen, you can probably say goodbye to both Matt Carson and Travis Buck, both looking for bench roles with Oakland.  Carson was expected to start in the minors, but this could be a huge blow to Buck whose career .257 average continues to hold him back.

Orlando Hudson, 2B — Still nothing concrete for the O-Dog as he continues to look for employment.  The lastest word was that the Nationals wanted him, but apparently he is looking for something in the $9M range, about $6M more than the Nats want to spend.  If Hudson does end up with the Nats, then that pushes Ian Desmond’s debut off another year as Hudson playing second shifts Cristian Guzman back over to short.  Personally, I had Desmond tabbed as a 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper, but if this signing happens, he won’t be anything more than a late season waiver pick up.

Felipe Lopez, 2B — And while the rest of the league is waiting to see where Hudson ends up, guys like Lopez just sit and wait in the wings despite a quality season in 2009.  Rumors have Lopez linked to the Cardinals and the Rockies, but for me, there are other tewams where he’d be a better fit, especially since the Rox have already signed Mora and the only real place for Lopez in St. louis would be at thrid in place of David Freese.  Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like Lopez will sign anywhere until the infieder market is more clear — translation:  no one’s signing Lopez until the Hudson market sets the price.

Kevin Gregg, RP — Look out Leo Nunez supporters!  Apparently the Marlins have made an offer to Gregg and we’re still waiting to hear the terms and the reliever’s thoughts.  This could clutter things up in the bullpen, especially if you were looking to scoop up Nunez late in your draft for some cheap saves.  The two would likely compete in Spring Training, but with two moderately experienced closers in the pen, whichever guy ends up winning the gig, he will certainly have a vulture on his shoulder watching his every move.

     Now sure, there are a few more minor league contracts that were given out, but for the most part, for the players you’re going to want to use this year, that’s about all the important news to report.  There will be a few more signings coming up, but fo rthe most part, it looks like most teams have finished their pre-spring shopping.  Plenty of things can change once Spring Training kicks off, but for now that seems to be it for the Hot Stove action.

     For the best in free fantasy baseball advice, fantasy baseball player rankings, fantasy baseball draft help, and fantasy baseball strategy, stick with Rotobuzz.com and I’ll have you at the top of your standings in no time.

Good luck and I’ll see you all in the money this year!

Closers and Relief Pitchers

1st Tier:  Joe Nathan, Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Papelbon, Joakim Soria, Jonathan Broxton

     The clear cut, 2010 top 5 closers in the game right now.  So says me and pretty much all of the fantasy baseball magazine right now.  I’m sure some folks will try to replace a name here or there depending on their preferences, but as far as fantasy closers go, these are my picks.  Joe Nathan and Mariano Rivera have topped these rankings for years, and the only thing that could hold them off of it is retirement.  They are about as automatic as you can get these days and obviously they both pitch for ultra-competitive teams.  Depending on your style of league, these guys might cost you, but in the end, it’ll be worth it.

     Joakim Soria is the perfect example of using a high end closer who resides on a bad team and being successful.  Soria, or “The Mexecutioner” as he is known in baseball circles, took a little step back last year due to injury but still posted 30 saves with a 2.21 ERA and 1.13 WHIP for the woeful Royals.  Personally, I love him and won’t ever hesitate to draft him.  The Royals might be a bad team, but they’re still going to win a bunch of games and, more than likely, those games should be close.  He’s going to get saves.  Hell, in 2008 the Royals won 75 games and Soria saved 42 of them.

     Jonathan Papelbon and Jonathan Broxton round off the top tier.  They are both elite, maintain fantastic ratios and will get plenty of save opps this season.  Papelbon struggled a little bit last year as he seemed to be pitching a little more cautiously and walked more guys (24) than he has ever in a given year.  He also had some troubles in the playoffs last year.  But he should also bounce back nicely this season and get back to pitching closer to what we expect of him.  Broxton, in his first full year as the Dodgers’ closer, was lights out.  He did have some foot issues in the second half, but come on…114 Ks in 76 innings with 36 saves and a sub 1.00 WHIP?  Sold! 

2nd Tier:  Francisco Rodriguez, Carlos Marmol, Jose Valverde, Heath Bell, Brian Wilson, David Aardsma

     The next group is almost as tasty as the first for the sake of fantasy baseball.  While the Mets rotation may be suspect, Francisco Rodriguez remains a stalwart out of the pen.  He did some struggling last year, especially with his ratios, but so did all the Mets.  The team, this year, expects a full rebound from everyone (save for Carlos Beltran, I’m sure), so expect to see K-Rod return to form.  He’s never going to duplicate his record breaking 62 save season, but let’s be realistic.  If he save 35, then I’m happy.

     Lou Pinella and the Cubs finally stopped screwing around and finally handed Carlos Marmol the job last year.  Unfortunately, they didn’t get quite the results they hoped as his walk rate got a bit out of control.  Perhaps it was the change in pressure and preparation he goes through changing from set-up to closer.  But he should right that ship this year and should walk away from Spring Training with the confidence of his manager and his team.  Marmol’s strikeout potential is off the charts so as long as he gets himself mentally in shape, he’ll be fine.

     We’ve got another pair of new guys here in Heath Bell and David Aardsma.  Bell had the pressure of taking over for the San Diego legend, Trevor Hoffman, and excelled.  Another closer for a bad team, Bell notched 42 saves last year with a 2.71 ERA and 1.12 WHIP for the dismal Padres and while he might not look like the most athletic guy out there, he’s got nasty stuff fo rthe 9th inning.  Aardsma took a different route as the Mariners spent most of the first 2 months of 2008 unsuccessfully shuffling around their pen.  Finally, they turned to Aardsma and the righty rang up 38 saves and 80 Ks in just uner 72 innings of work.  The M’s did nothing to bring inany bullpen competition for him, so the job is his this season and should make for a nice pick.

     Finishing off the group are new Tigers closer Jose Valverde and the Giants’ Brian Wilson.  Some might be nervous about Valverde’s switch to the AL, but it’s a little different for 9th inning guys who are there just to throw the heat (see today’s quote).  Although he missed a little time with injury last season he still managed 25 saves for the lowly Astros and actually improved on his ratios.  I expect him to have a great year in Detroit!  As for Wilson, well, he’ll make you plenty nervous but he still manages to get the job done.  He’s got great stuff, but sometimes he’ll have the tendency to overthrow and will end up with a guy or two on base.  Still, his ratios are tight and his save opps will be plenty.  Draft with confidence. 

3rd Tier:  Bobby Jenks, Billy Wagner, Rafael Soriano, Brian Fuentes, Andrew Bailey, Trevor Hoffman, Francisco Cordero, Huston Street

     This next group should all come a little cheaper in auctions and a little later in snake-drafts, but shoudl all still be reasonably reliable.  There are high expectations in Chicago for a new slim and trim Bobby Jenks and I expect him to deliver.  The Braves took a shot on Billy Wagner and should benefit from that experienced leadership in the pen, while the Rays picked up the Braves former closer in Rafael Soriano.  It’s the first time in a long time that the Rays have a bonafide closer in their pen, but there may be an injury concern here or there.  Still, I like him enough in Tampa to draft him.

     Speaking of injury concerns, you’ve still got Huston Street closing out games in Colorado.  He had a real nice comeback last year and although he lost some time, he still notched 35 saves for the always competitive Rockies.  After that you’ve got old vets like the ageless Trevor Hoffman, Francisco “Coco” Cordero and Brian Fuentes.  All three should be solid middle to late round closer picks, but you’ve always got to be on your guard.  Aside from Hoffman’s age, you’ve also got the fact that both Fuentes and Cordero have had their struggles in their careers and could implode at any time.  Always wise to handcuff them to their set-up guys.

     And finally, there’s Andrew Bailey, 2009’s AL Rookie of the Year.  Now I’m not going to deny Bailey’s stuff and he pitched beautifully for the hapless A’s last year.  But there are 3 things to keep in mind — Brad Ziegler only lost his job due to injury, Joey Devine was the guy the A’s really wanted for the job, and this article I wrote a little way’s back.  Bailey still makes for a good option right now, but always make sure you have a contingency plan.

4th Tier:  Brad Lidge, Frank Francisco, Matt Capps, Ryan Franklin, Brandon Lyon, Jason Frasor, Chad Qualls, Kerry Wood, Leo Nunez, Mike Gonzalez

     So this group is the guys that all, as of right now, have the closer’s job for their respective teams.  They also have a few concerns of which you should be wary.  Brad Lidge went from super-stud to super-suck last year and needs to prove he’s ready for duty this spring, Frank Francisco got hurt and struggled in his return (hurt me big time in the second half last year), Matt Capps stays on a crappy team and has a guy behind him that was originally promised the job, Brandon lyon moves from Detroit to hitter-friendly Houston, and Mike Gonzalez switches the other way and leaves Atlanta for hitter-friendly Camden Yards.

     You also have some questions with Ryan Franklin who, while he did an amazing job last year for the Cards, is 38 years old and has plenty of vultures lurking.  Chad Qualls takes back over in Arizona, a job he was given but lost when the D-Backs had enough confidence in him to bring in Valverde (that’s sarcasm, folks), Kerry Wood is…well, Kerry Wood, Jason Frasor has the nod right now after taking over the job last year,and Leo Nunez continues in Florida after winning the job in the second half last year.  All will start off withthe job and get their save opps, but just be careful and pay attention to how they do alongside their set-up men.

5th Tier:  Octavio Dotel, Joel Hanrahan, Fernando Rodney, Matt Lindstrom, Brad Ziegler, Scott Downs, Takashi Saito, LaTroy Hawkins, C.J. Wilson

     And here come the set-up men.  Well mostly.  I’ve got Octavio Dotel and Joel Hanrahan over here because they should be competing for the job in Pittsburgh this spring.  They both have experience and they both have issues, so we’ll have to wait this one out.  After that you’ve got guys who have experience as closers, may have lost the job at some point in their careers, but all could play a major role in 2010.  Fernando Rodney backs up Fuentes who has lost his job before, Matt Lindstrom has experience and sits behind Lyon in Houston, and C.J. Wilson was pretty reliable taking over for Francisco in Texas.

     Scott Downs was doing very well in Toronto until he got hurt, so I’m watching him and Frasor very closely this spring, and finally there’s LaTroy Hawkins who now backs up Hoffman in Milwaukee and Takashi Saito who was brought in as insurance for Wagner in Atlanta.  Theses aren’t necessairly the guys you draft, but more the guys you pick up early on as waiver picks.

6th Tier and beyond:  Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan, John Grabow, George Sherrill, Chris Perez, Brian Bruney, Ryan Madson, J.P. Howell, Franklin Morales, Rafael Betancourt, Juan Cruz, Kyle Farnsworth, Joel Zumaya, Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch, J.J. Putz, Matt Thornton, Phil Hughes, Kevin Gregg

     And speaking of waiver picks, that’s pretty much what you’ve got here.  This tier is comprised of the possibles in case of injury or seriosu meltdowns.  To highlight a few that I like, we have Franklin Morales in Colorado, Brian Bruney in Washington, Ryan Madson in Philly, and the tandem of Jason Motte and Kyle McClellan in St. Louis.  I’d also keep and eye on Chris Perez in Cleveland and maybe J.P. Howell in Tampa.  Again, no one you go after in your main draft but definitely keep them on your radar all spring long.

Click here for more 2010 Fantasy Baseball Position Tiers

Click here for my 2010 Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings and Cheat Sheets

For the best in free fantasy baseball advice, fantasy baseball draft help, and fantasy baseball strategy, stick with Rotobuzz.com and I’ll have you at the top of your standings in no time.

Good luck and I’ll see you all in the money this year!

     Being from New York, and a Yankees fan no less, I have been bombarded with hostile opinions deriding big market teams for glomming all of the top free agents with their big market dollars.  Sit down with any Royals fan and they’ll give you a complete discertation as to how they could have/should have won had they not lost all of their best players to free agent greed and owners like George Steinbrenner.  It’s a debate that has trudged on for years and, barring a miraculous turn of events where a salary cap will be introduced, will likely go on for many more.  But Billy Beane and the A’s took a much different route than usual today.  Not only did they trump every big market team’s offer, but they surpassed even the lofty contract demands put forth by Sheets and his agent.  So why am I getting my undies in a bunch over this?  No, it’s not because I was hoping the Yankees would get him.  It’s because I know the A’s have no intention of ever paying this ridiculous contract that was signed.

     As someone who follows baseball religiously and currently resides in the Bay Area, I have seen the type of business the A’s run.  From the days of losing “The Big 3″ at the turn of this century to the time they traded for and subsequently traded away Matt Holiday, the A’s are all about perpetual rebuilding, low payrolls and bounties of prospects.  They haven’t made a legitimate move to become a competitive team in the last 10 years while crying foul every time a team like the Yankees or the Dodgers hoist their payroll to the $200M plateau.  So this is now the way Beane fights back, and believe me, this could really get ugly.

     The A’s will send Sheets to the hill every 5 days along with that sad sack bunch they call a team and swear to the fans that they are trying to compete.  But what they’re really doing is spending no money on their actual squad and showcasing their newfound ace for all the teams that have a legitimate shot at the World Series and can afford the inane price tag.  Mark my words…by August, at the very latest, the A’s will be mathematically eliminated from the post-season and will not only trade Sheets for a plethora of middling prospects, but also get whichever team that bites the hardest to pick up the majority of the monies owed.

     I’m sure some will laud Beane for his “savvy” move and say that it’s just his way of competing in the uneven market, but what it does is offer up a different kind of free agency blueprint for all the other small market teams.  Offer up excessively large sums of money, land the free agent, and trade him away for prospects while getting someone else to pick up the tab.  Imagine Tim Lincecum as a free agent next year.  While everyone is offering up multi-year deals at astronomical dollars, say $25M per to put him ahead of the deal CC Sabathia signed last year, the Pirates come in and offer him a shorter deal at $30M per and an under-the-table promise that he’ll be pitching for a contender inside that first year.  They offer him even more protection by giving him a limited no trade clause so that he can pick and choose where he ultimately ends up.   It might sound a little odd, but what’s to stop a team from doing just that?  There’s nothing in the rule books that says you can’t do it, so who’s to say they won’t?  Beane has taken this ugly first step and if he pulls it off, others would be fools not to follow. 

     And the snowball effect that will likely ensue will do so much more harm in the long run.  Salaries will get even more ridiculous,  ownership will start to try and fight back, threats of strikes and lockouts, and ultimately the trickle-down will skyrocket ticket prices, merchandise and concessions even more until the fans just can’t take it anymore.  It’s bad enough that it costs a family of four upwards of $300 to go to a game these days.  Imagine how much worse it can get.

     So while Billy Beane is sitting there in his office, patting himself on the back for a job well done, keep in mind what he is doing.  He’s not being shrewd and innovative.  He’s certainly not supporting his Moneyball philosophy and putting out a quality team at a bargain price.  No.  He is merely finding a clever way to scam a flawed system and perpetuate the financial headaches from which we all suffer.  The best thing that can come of this is that no team chooses to deal with the A’s for Sheets, or atleast decides not to pick up the tab for them.  Then Beane and his sniveling cohorts in the Oakland front office can not only lose Sheets after the season for nothing, but also get stuck paying the $10M check.  That should atleast be the price to pay for being part of the problem rather than the solution.

Starting Pitchers

1st Tier:  Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, Zack Greinke, CC Sabathia, Dan Haren

     Plain and simple…the cream of the crop.  If you’re going to make the move and invest a high draft pick or excessive bid dollars in a starter, then it better be one of these guys.  These 5 are as reliable as you can get and any one fo them can end up doing the work of 2 (maybe even 3) lower tiered startes.

     Tim Lincecum, with his back to back Cy Youngs in his first 2 seasons in the bigs, is the unquestioned ace of aces.  His ratios are ridiculous, his strikeouts are mind-blowing and you know what…the wins are going to follow this year.  While they haven’t done crazy things this offseason, the Giants have definitely beefed up their lineup enough that little Timmy shouldn’t be losing those heartbreaking 2-1 decisions like he has in the past.  Expect him to continue the path that he’s on, especially when he could be playing for a contract this year.

     The move to the Phillies could do wonders for Roy Halladay.  No, I don’t expect him to win 25 games this year, but in all honesty, it really wouldn’t be that far-fetched.  I see Halladay’s K’s improving with the move to the NL (who doesn’t love replacing a DH with a pitcher at the plate?) and his ratios should stay relatively intact.  The only concern I may have, and this would not deter me from him at all in the draft, is that his “HR allowed” went up a little these past 2 seasons and Citizens’ Bank Ballpark plays like my backyard sometimes.

     I’ll admit that it took me a couple of seasons to warm up to the idea of Zack Greinke being an ace, but lo and behold, here he is in my top tier.  He’s made improvements on his ratios every year since 2005, boosted his strikeouts and even increased his wins despite pitching for the woeful Royals.  It looks like the social anxiety disorder is being properly treated and I think Greinke’s 2009 totals should be where he plateaus for another couple of seasons.

     Rounding out the top tier are CC Sabathia and Dan Haren.  Both are high quality starters and while I’d rather have the previous 3 over these guys, they’re still head and shoulders above the rest.  Sabathia could easily post 20 win seasons for the almighty Yankees while keeping his ratios in check, and his K’s should hover in the 200 range.  Haren, has been one of the most underrated of aces in the game, but coul dstand to work on his efforts in the second half.  It’s always the same story with him — lights out first half, mediocrity in the second.  You can bet he’ll be on the top of everyone’s “sell high” list by the end of June.

2nd Tier:  Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Johan Santana, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Josh Johnson, Jon Lester, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Javier Vazquez, Jake Peavy, Matt Cain, Josh Beckett

     I’m sure you’ve just glanced through the names of the second tier and are probably thinking, “Hey!  Some of these guys are top tier material, aren’t they?”  Well, yes…and no.  I love a lot of these guys for this season, but like I did with my other positional tiers, I’ve left the top for the unquestioned and the unflappable.  These guys here in the second tier all have great stuff and coul dvery well be considered aces, but there’s a little something that’s holding me back.

     Take Felix Hernandez for instance.  King Felix had a Cy Young worthy season in 2009 with his 19 wins, 217 K, 2.49 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.  Outstanding.  But let’s face facts…the kid is only 23 and has already thrown 190+ innings for 4 straight seasons.  He hasn’t posted numbers this good since his 2005 call-up and he pitches for the Mariners.  So what am I saying?  I’m saying he may be great and he may duplicate his ‘09 totals, but the odds of a major arm injury or a reversion to his ‘07/’08 ratios are pretty high, in my opinion.

     Justin Verlander is another one that I question.  His 2009 totals were insane.  No question.  Anytime you strike out 269 batters and win 19 games you have to be put a cut above the rest.  But in looking at his numbers in previous years, I think the Verlander you get this year will be more in line with the one you got back in 2007.  You may not get the 18 wins, but the other numbers should fall in line.

     Beyond those two, you’ve got some real nice starters here to work with.  I’m a big fan of  Josh Johnson and believe that he is en route to being in the top tier very soon.  The same could be said for Jon Lester.  The Cardinals’ tandem of Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter should continue to perfom at high levels, Cole Hamels is looking for a rebound, and Cliff Lee returns to the AL, but in a much better ballpark for himself.  You also have solid starters in Matt Cain and Josh Beckett, both who can put up ace-like numbers in a given season.

     A couple of question marks round out the tier for me — Javier Vazquez comes off a phenomenal season for the Braves but returns to the Yankees where he definitely experienced some difficulties his last time around, Jake Peavy who has his first full season in the AL with the White Sox while still trying to show that the elbow is healthy, and Johan Santana who is also making his way back from elbow issues.  Santana threw 24 pitches off of a mound on Tuesday and swears he’s ready for Spring Training and Opening Day, and that might be the case, but I have some concerns about the full year. 

3rd Tier:  Clayton Kershaw, Jered Weaver, Yovani Gallardo, Brandon Webb, John Lackey, Matt Garza, Ricky Nolasco, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jair Jurrjens, Scott Baker, John Danks, Chad Billingsley, Tommy Hanson, Max Scherzer, Ryan Dempster, James Shields, Scott Kazmir, A.J. Burnett, Carlos Zambrano

     There’s some great talent to be found in this tier of pitchers; a great mix of youngsters and veterans who can all contribute to your fantasy success this year and should all be right about the same place in your fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings.  If you’re looking for youth with great upside, then Clayton Kersahw, Chad Billingsley, John Danks, Jered Weaver, Yovani Gallardo, Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson make for great picks.  Weaver, Danks and Jurrjens all looked great in their third full year last year and should continue to produce, while Kershaw and for all intents and purposes Gallardo (missed almost all of 2008), are primed for their ”third year starter” breakouts.  Hanson dominated once he was up in the bigs last year and with the stuff he’s got, I expect big things from him even so early on in his career.  Billingsley struggled last season, but if he can come out again like he did in the first half of last year, then he should be fine.  He might be a good sell-high candidate if you’re nervous about his second half performance agaain.

     As for some of the veterans, Brandon Webb is hoping to stage a nice comeback, John Lackey is looking to rebound in Boston, James Shields should improve his overall numbers, and A.J. Burnett has been a great addition to the Yankees rotation.  I’ve never been a huge Ryan Dempster fan but his numbers from the past 2 seasons prove that he can eat innings and maintain decent ratios.  While Carlos Zambrano is obviously on the decline, he’s likely to throw atleast one more good season before he totally craps out.  And Scott Kazmir looked like he was getting back into form withthe move to the Angels.  He won’t ever be as dominant as he was in 2007, but should be a great #2 or 3 starter for your team.

     Rounding out the bunch are Matt Garza, Ubaldo Jimenez, Scott Baker, Ricky Nolasco and Max Scherzer.  They are all solid starters and their strikeouts and ratios should be a great help to your pitching staff.  Baker and Garza have both been favorites of mine for some time now.  They both could use some improvements in ERA, but this is, pretty much, Garza’s third full year, and Baker is coninuing to improve on his K/BB ratio.  Scherzer could be a nice fantasy sleeper this season.  Plenty of people will dismiss him due to the move to the AL, but with the heat he can bring, that nasty slider and the move to pitcher-friendly Comerica Park, I expect great numbers from him in 2010.

4th Tier:  Wandy Rodriguez, Edwin Jackson, Gavin Floyd, Randy Wolf, Rich Harden, Brett Anderson, Erik Bedard, Kevin Slowey, Hiroki Kuroda, Mark Buehrle, Roy Oswalt, Johnny Cueto, J.A. Happ, Scott Feldman, Clay Buchholz, Jorge De La Rosa, Andy Pettitte

     Now we’re moving into the area where research is of the utmost importance.  When you’re trying to build a pitching staff using mostly lower tiered guys, you have to do a lot of studying.  It’ll pay off in the end, especially if your offense is killer, but you have to be careful.  One of the first things you should be looking at is a player’s WHIP.  Sabermetric junkies will talk about DIPS and BIPA, but if you just take the time to check out a pitcher’s WHIP, you can come to the same conclusions, more or less.

     For example, before the shoulder surgery that will keep him out fo the first month, I would have had Ted Lilly up in this tier and hyping him big time.  For the last 3 seasons, Lilly has been one of the Cubs most reliable starters and has averaged a 1.15 WHIP over the last 3 years.  That’s what you should be looking for when picking up pitchers down here.  We’ll have to see where he ends up, but Erik Bedard is someone you should track that fits that mold. Same thing with Hiroki Kuroda.  He may have lost time to injury last year, but he’s got a 1.19 average WHIP for the last 3 seasons.  Ditto for Rich Harden, but he’s more prone to the DL than most.

     Amongst the others that I like here are Mark Buehrle, Randy Wolf, Brett Anderson, Kevin Slowey and even Jorge De La Rosa.  Buehrle and Wolf are nice reliable veterans, Anderson showed he’s ready for big league action, and Slowey is still a pitcher on the rise.  De La Rosa’s ratios might be a bit high, but they’re not terrible, especially if he’s going to give you close to 200 Ks.

     I can’t really downgrade based on personal feelings, but I don’t have much confidence in Wandy Rodriguez even coming close to his numbers from last year and I think J.A. Happ will struggle in his second season with the Phillies.  I also think Edwin Jackson, despite the move to the NL, could struggle in hitter-friendly Chase Field.  My jury is still out on Clay Buchholz, another season from Andy Pettitte, Roy Oswalt’s comeback, and Johnny Cueto.  I like them in this tier, but we’ll likely make adjustments in the Starting Pitcher Rankings and Cheat Sheets as we move along in the spring.

5th Tier:  Joel Pineiro, Gil Meche, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jonathan Sanchez, Joba Chamberlain, David Price, Jeff Niemann, Joe Blanton, Derek Lowe, Randy Wells, Ervin Santana, Rick Porcello, Joe Saunders, Bronson Arroyo, Kevin Millwood, Jarrod Washburn, Jason Marquis, Brad Penny, Ted Lilly, Zach Duke, Aaron Cook, Madison Bumgarner, Stephen Strasburg, Ben Sheets

     Same philosophy as the above tier when scouring through the numbers, but you’re likely goign to have to take a few more gambles down here.  You’ve got some good upside in guys like Rick Porcello, Joba Chamberlain (if he doesn’t end up in the pen), Jeff Niemann, Randy Wells, and David Price.  They’re all young enough that they can throw in a nice breakout season for you.  I also like Madison Bumgarner a lot, and whil ehe sits in this tier, you are likely to get him at a serious bargain price.  Just keep him on your radar.

     Now that Ben Sheets has signed with Oakland, you can start monitoring his sessions.  He’s a bit of a risk, not having pitched at all in 2009, but his upside is huge and the ballpark he now calls hom is cavernous.  And then there’s the legend of Stephen Strasburg.  The kid has crazy talent, no doubt.  But you are more than likely going to overpay this year for him.  If you’re in a keeper league then it might not be too bad, but I don’t necessairly trhink he’ll have that big an impact in 2010.  I figure he’ll spend the first half of the season in the minors and once the Nationals are completely out of it, they’ll bring him up to test the waters. 

     The rest are an interesting collection of veterans whom you may find to be quite valuable.  Fantasy sleepers I like include Jarrod Washburn, Jason Marquis and Brad Penny.  All thre looked solid last year and have all moved to teams with either a strong offense or a nice friendly ballpark.  I am not sold on Joel Pineiro, however.  People might reach for him, but his return to the AL with the Angels could bring back the nightmares of 2005 and 2006.  

6th Tier:  Barry Zito, Carl Pavano, Trevor Cahill, Ross Ohlendorff, Kevin Correia, Tommy Hunter, Wade Davis, Aaron Harang, Chien-Ming Wang, Kojii Uehara, Robinson Tejeda, Tim Wakefield, Homer Bailey, John Maine, Francisco Liriano, Brad Bergeson, Brett Myers, Justin Duchscherer, Ricky Romero, Chris Volstad, Marc Rzepczynski, Derek Holland, Kyle Lohse, Nick Blackburn, Kenshin Kawakami

     We’re getting deeper and deeper here and treading through some rough waters now.  This is where you need to be really selective.  Some interesting names like Trevor Cahill, Ricky Romero, Chris Volstad and Nick Blackburn all intrigue me, so those are names I will certainly monitor throughout the spring. 

     Justin Duchscherer is another interesting buy-low candidate, but we need to see, not only the condition of his hip, but his state of mind as well.  Guys who slip into DL stints due to depression make me nervous.  If the mental aspect is so important to a pitcher’s results, then we need to make sure his head’s on straight before drafting him. 

     You can definitely do worse than some of the veterans in here, but Barry Zito, Carl Pavano and Aaron Harang are always a concern.  If Zito and Pavano can duplicate last year’s totals, then they’ll be good for the back end of your rotation, but these are not consistent starters that you can rely on.  Harang?  I wouldn’t touch him these days, but he’s probably a better option than mmost of the guys you’ll see below.

7th Tier and beyond:  Mat Latos, Clayton Richard, John Lannan, Shaun Marcum, Dustin McGowan, Paul Maholm, Jon Garland, Jeremy Guthrie, Dallas Braden, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Brandon Morrow, Bud Norris, Vicente Padilla, John Smoltz, Anibal Sanchez, Pedro Martinez, Oliver Perez, David Huff, Mike Pelfrey, Armando Galarraga, Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, Justin Masterson, Jason Hammel, Ian Snell, Fausto Carmona

     Coin flips here, folks.  There are some here that have had their moments in the sun, but this is about as inconsistent as you can get.  Some interesting sleepers in Dallas Braden, Vicente Padilla , John Smoltz, Brandon Morrow, Justin Masterson and Armando Galaragga, but guys in this tier are guys you’re likely forced to play based on matchups.

Click here for more 2010 Fantasy Baseball Position Tiers

Click here for my 2010 Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings and Cheat Sheets

For the best in free fantasy baseball advice, fantasy baseball draft help, and fantasy baseball strategy, stick with Rotobuzz.com and I’ll have you at the top of your standings in no time.

Good luck and I’ll see you all in the money this year!

Now onto some of the changes…

     I’ll start with what will be the most obvious change that you will see.  By the beginning of February, I will be launching The Fantasy Baseball Buzz.  It is just a continuation, a next step in the evolutionary process, if you will, of RotoBuzz.com.  The look and feel of the site will be different, but the content will be exaclty the same.  In fact, when the site launches, you will see all of the old published RotoBuzz content, including position tiers, player rankings, cheat cheets and advice articles, along with all of the new content I will be writing after February 1st.  I am just taking the next step towards optimizing the site’s exposure.  Upon the launching of the new site, I will be doing a re-direct of all back links to RotoBuzz so hopefully you won’t have to change your RSS feeds, favorites page, etc.  If all goes smoothly, you will just automatically be re-directed to the new site.

     The site will remain a free fantasy baseball site.  I will not hit you with log-ins or ask for you to pay me for site access.  The game of fantasy baseball is continuously growing and there are tons of sites popping up all over the place.  You probably spend enough money on site subscriptions and fantasy baseball magazines, as is, so I’m not going to add to your financial concerns.

     From time to time you may see a guest writer on the site, but for all intents and purposes, the content will be written solely by me.  Keith Giordano has moved on to create his own fantasy baseball advice blog, and I am happy to endorse FantasyBaseballAddiction.com for him.  He will be dilligently plugging away, as well, hoping to share some of the insights to a successful fantasy baseball season.

     If you would like to become a guest writer, then please feel free to contact me at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com and put “guest writer” in the subject heading.  I am always happy to bring new thoughts and opinions to the site and believe that “the more, the merrier” definitely applies, especially when doing research for your upcoming fantasy baseball drafts.  If you have an article you would like to submit, then please attach it to the email and I will give it a read.  I will get back to you as quickly as possible to discuss it’s potential publication.

     We will finally be seeing some advertising on the site, in addition to the Google ads you see at the end of each post.  While I was once hesitant to “clutter” up the site with ads and focus solely on the content, I have changed my tune a little.  A little money coming in will only help the site grow even further.  I will try to keep the ads relevant to the topic at hand, and if you would like to advertise on The Fantasy Baseball Buzz when it launches, then please send me an email at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com and please put “buzz advertising” in the subject heading.

     Apparently the 21st century is upon us and I am trying to bring RotoBuzz/FantasyBaseballBuzz up to date with the technological advancements from which you grab your news and information.  As you can see from the home page here, I am now on Twitter so you can follow me @rotobuzzguy.  Along with announcements for important postings, I will be sharing information and random fantasy baseball thoughts throughout my day.  Sometimes it becomes more convenient to immediately share a thought rather than wait to sit down and write a full-blown article.  So definitely check me out on Twitter!  As we move forward and launch the new site, a Facebook fan page will be available as well.

     In addition to my fantasy musings, you’ll also be able to hear my thoughts on the real game of baseball through the blog network of Fanball.com (you’ll see it on the top right).  I have recently been hired as their exclusive beat writer covering the Chicago White Sox.  I’ve added the link to the right over here on RotoBuzz, but in case you haven’t caught it yet, you can just click here for SouthSideSwingers.com.   I’ve already begun my 2010 White Sox coverage so stop by and check it out!  As always, your comments are welcomed and most definitely, appreciated.

     That’s about all I have for you now, but will be updating you with any new information I have as it comes.  Thank you all again very much for your continued support.

All the best,

Howard Bender

Founder of RotoBuzz.com

Outfielders

1st Tier:  Ryan Braun, Matt Holliday, Matt Kemp, Carl Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury

     Unless someone has a real affectation for someone else, these should be the top 5 outfielders off the board this year.  Depending on how many teams are in your league, they could all disappear in the first round, but most likely, the first two.  Ryan Braun has easily established himself as the top fantasy outfielder with 3 straight phenomenal seasons.  As a matter fo fact, he’s averaging a .307 BA over that time with an average of 34 HR, 106 RBI and 16 SB.  For me, Matt Holliday, now officially re-signed with the Cardinals should put up some monster stats this year too with a full season of protecting Albert Pujols inthe lineup.  Think somewhere between his ‘06 and ‘07 totals. 

     Matt Kemp has also recently established himself as a player worthy of first tier consideration.  I was waiting to see how he’d follow up his 2008 breakout season before I was a believer and in ‘09 he turned in offensive improvements across the board.  OK, so maybe he stole one less base, but I’mnot nit-picking like that come draft day.  Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury are the burners again this year.  They might see some competition from some of the other guys below, but with 130 stolen bases in ‘09 between the two of them, along with .300+ batting averages, they stand head and shoulder above the rest today.  Good to see Crawford bringing that power back up to levels we were expecting.

2nd Tier:  Justin Upton, Jason Bay, Grady Sizemore, Adam Dunn, Ichiro Suzuki, Manny Ramirez, Jayson Werth, Bobby Abreu, Curtis Granderson, Carlos Lee

     In a few cases, there was the potential to put some guys into the top tier, but there are still some minor things holding me back.  Justin Upton put up a fantastic .300-26-20 season last year despite starting the season in a platoon role.  However, like I did with Kemp last year, I have to wait and see how he follows up.  I’m not saying he’s not worthy and shouldn’t be taken with a relatively high pick.  I’m just saying that I don’t want to fall for the same hype as we all did with his brother.  Jason Bay is another one who could be up there, but with the streakiness I saw last year, the .267 average and the move to Citi Field, I have to bump him down a spot or two despite the fact that he’ll likely break the 30 HR barrier again.

     Grady Sizemore’s value takes a little hit after last year’s injury problems.  There are plenty of fantasy baseball magazines hyping the comeback season, but you might want to hedge your expectations a bit.  While I still believe he is worthy of a high end pick, I don’t see him reaching those 30-30 levels anytime soon.  20-20 now, is a different story.

     Regardless of how well he’s done in the past two seasons, this could really be the year to own Jayson Werth.  The .273-24-20 season followed up with a .268-36-20 coupled with the contract year he is entering could mean that he puts it all together for a .275-32-20 year in 2010.  Of course, if the Phillies can’t afford him any longer and he signs elsewhere in 2011 he might not be joining such a great lineup in such a great hitters park.  But that’s for next year.

     In the meantime, the rest of the tier is rounded off with some rock solid veterans.  Adam Dunn continued to rake and brought up his average a little, Manny Ramirez should produce at solid levels now that the ‘roids scandal is behind him, Ichiro Suzuki will continue his assault on AL pitching while swiping a ton of bases, and Bobby Abreu should remain consistent.  I like Curtis Granderson even more now that he’s in that stacked Yankees lineup and hopefully he can work on hitting lefties and improve that BA.  And finally there’s “El Caballo”…  While Carlos Lee’s power might be diminishing a little with age, I think he can still throw you another 30+ HR season.  The average may dip below .300, but I’ll still take him!

3rd Tier:  Andre Ethier, Nelson Cruz, Nick Markakis, Shin-Soo Choo, Raul Ibanez, Torii Hunter, Shane Victorino, Adam Jones, Josh Hamilton, Adam Lind, B.J. Upton, Ben Zobrist, Alex Rios, Carlos Beltran, Michael Bourn, Ryan Ludwick, Carlos Quentin, Alfonso Soriano

     The third tier is stacked with plenty of power and speed.  Guys like Nelson Cruz, Raul Ibanez, Josh Hamilton (if healthy),  Adam Lind, Ryan Ludwick and Carlos Quentin can rake with the best of them and should put up strong power numbers this year while speedster like B.J. Upton and Michael Bourn could take their games to the next level.  I like the all around play of Andre Ethier and Nick Markakis and would love to see each of them build on last year’s totals.  I feel like we’ve waited long enough on Markakis, so hopefully this is the year.  Same goes for Alex Rios.  I’m hoping that a full year with the White Sox will help him reach that potential we’ve all be very patiently awaiting.

     OK, so I’ll admit my Adam Jones man-crush right now.  I love this kid and I think he’s going to be a superstar one day, if he’s not already en route.  His ‘09 season of .277-19-70-10 was an outstanding build from his ‘08 rookie campaign.  The only sticking point, and one that I will risk every year, is that because he plays so “all-out”, because he’s a gamer, Jones ends up losing time with an array of minor injuries.  Nothing too serious, but enough to keep him under 500 AB the last 2 years.  If he can stay healthy here in his third full season, I don’t see why he can’t break 20 HR and increase that SB total as well.

     Torii Hunter continues to play at high levels and his 5 tool contributions are wothy of a roster spot in any fantasy league.  I though he was going to fade a year or two ago, but have been happily proven wrong.  Carlos Beltran, with the secret surgery that is now likely to keep him out through April, gets a bump down in value, but if he looks good in extended spring training, then you can probably expect good things from him.  Speaking of injuries, I’m hoping that Alfonso Soriano’s knee troubles are behind him.  That guy went from uber-stud to craptown pretty quickly over these last 2 years.  He’s supposed to be ready for Spring Training so let’s keep our fingers crossed.

     Rounding out the tier are two guys I really like but have a little bit of nervousness about.  Shin-Soo Choo put up a great year last season posting a 20-21 year with a .300 average in his first full year.  But with talk of how desperate he is to win a gold medal at the Asian Games in November (he gets to skip his 2 year military committment if he does), I’m wondering just how “all out” he’s going to go.  The other guy is “The Flyin’ Hawaiian”, Shane Victorino.  He took a small step back in his development last year and I’m wondering if getting buried in the bottom end of the order is going to continue to hinder that progress.  He can easily swipe 40+ bases, but with Jimmy Rollins slated for leadoff and Placido Polanco stepping into the 2 hole, there’s not much opportunity for him to hit higher than 7th in that order.

4th Tier:  Hunter Pence, Denard Span , Andrew McCutchen, Nolan Reimold,  Johnny Damon, Michael Cuddyer, Nate McLouth, Julio Borbon, Jermaine Dye, Rajai Davis, Nyjer Morgan, Vernon Wells, Corey Hart, Brad Hawpe, Cody Ross, Juan Pierre, Jay Bruce, Carlos Gonzalez, Chris Coghlan, Luke Scott

     Upside, potential, possibilities, you name it.  That’s what we’re looking at from a lot of this tier.  Players like Denard Span, Andrew McCutchen, Nolan Reimold, Julio Borbon, Jay Bruce, Chris Coghlan and Carlos Gonzalez are all fairly young, produced decent 2009 totals and all have room to grow.  Personally, I like McCutchen and Borbon for their speed and I’m not losing faith in Bruce.  The average really needs to come up, but that .353-4-16 September he turned in makes me worry a lot less about his recovery from afractured wrist.  The others should be nice middle round pick ups.

      There are also some veterans that have a good chance to make an impact this year as Juan Pierre returns to full time leadoff duties for the White Sox, Johnny Damon still may stay with the Yankees, and Rajai Davis gets a chance to start in Oakland for the first time.  Maybe it’s because I’m now covering the White Sox for Fanball.com this season, but I really like Pierre as a guy to grab if you miss out on one of the top burners.  Jermaine Dye is still up in the air, but wherever he signs, if he starts, you can still probably expect 20 HR from him.

     As for the other vets in this tier…Michael Cuddyer probably won’t reach that 30 HR total again, but another 20-25 aren’t out of the question, Cody Ross has been improving the last 2 years since getting the starting nod and Luke Scott should continue the decent power/low average trend that he always follows.  Brad Hawpe stays down in this tier because he just can’t keep it going all season long.  He puts up solid numbers overall, but he’s like Jekyll and Hyde each year.  In ‘08 it was the brutally slow start with a monster second half and last season it was the opposite.  I like to call it Nate McLouth Disorder (NMD).  Until he can give me an entire season of steady production, he stays down here. As for McLouth, well, he was doing the same thing, atleast until he kept getting hurt after being traded to the Braves.  We’ll see how he rebounds this year, but again, it’ll probably be for just half the season.

     Finishing off the tier are Corey Hart and Vernon Wells.  Hart went consecutive 20-20 seasons before last year’s disastrous totals, and spent most of the second half on the shelf with broken fingers and an appendectomy.  For me, he (along with Grady Sizemore, but with less talent) is the perfect example of 26 being the new 27.  He peaked in ‘08 at 26 and fell apart the year everyone thought he was going to take his game to the next level.  Should be interesting to see if he rebounds, but if he does, he could be a solid middle to late round fantasy baseball sleeper.  Wells, on the other hand, is a little more risky.  He’s been on the decline since ‘07 and never actually reached that potential we all heard about.  In fact, he’s been pretty inconsistent across the board.  His average is up and down along with his power totals and it’s getting tougher to predict what he’s going to do from year to year.  But that inconsistency just might be good for you if you want to take a late round flyer on him.  Talk him down in your league, scoop him up in the draft and hope/pray for a return to atleast the 25 HR level.     

5th Tier:  Magglio Ordonez, J.D. Drew, Mike Cameron, Xavier Nady, Jason Kubel, David DeJesus, Garrett Jones, Milton Bradley, Dexter Fowler, Colby Rasmus, Josh Willingham, Kosuke Fukudome, Marlon Byrd, Skip Schumaker, Delmon Young, Franklin Gutierrez, Jeremy Hermida, Nick Swisher, Mark DeRosa, Aaron Rowand, Kyle Blanks, Melky Cabrera

      Now we’re starting to move in to the declining veterans, the injury risks and the youngsters who may or may not have a starting job come the first of April.  Guys like J.D. Drew, Mike Cameron, Xavier Nady, Milton Bradley, and Josh Willingham all have the potential to put up solid power numbers, but their propensity for getting hurt puts a damper on drafting them.  I like 20 HR potential, but I’m often reluctant to draft a guy with an injury history the size of Prince Fielder’s grocery shopping list.

     But some of the guys here have some great potential as well.  Garrett Jones looked great in the second half last season, but obviously needs to show me he can produce over a full season.  How many times have we seen a guy come out like a house of fire after a call-up and then disappear into thin air the following year?  I also like the upside of Colby Rasmus, especially if the Cards put him in the 2 hole in the order.  He excelled last season hitting up there in front of Pujols, so maybe they’ll keep that going.  And then there’s Dexter Fowler.  As it stands right now, he’s behind Carlos Gonzalez on the depth chart, but I like what he has to offer.  His speed is that of a high end burner, but he’s also got some pop in his bat.  Nothing huge, but there’s something there.  He won the starting job early last year, but his undisciplined approach at the plate kept his average and OBP low enough that he only swiped 27 bases (5 in one game) and lost his starting job by season’s end.  If he has a hot spring and Gonzalez doesn’t, then I’d look into drafting him.

     Kyle Blanks has potential, but sitting behind Adrian Gonzalez isn’t helping.  Howvere of trade of either one of them puts Blanks back up there in value.  And sadly, the Braves will soon learn what the Yankees have known all along.  Melky Cabrera is the best Quadruple-A ball player out there.  His totals should be about average, especially moving from favorable Yankee Stadium to pitcher friendly Turner Field.

     As for the rest in the tier, I think you know what you need to know about them.  Nothing special, but nothing terrible.  Some streakiness in there for guys like Aaron Rowand and Kosuke Fukudome, an over-performer last year in Marlon Byrd, and a likely reduction in power for Mark DeRosa as he heads to the cold, damp San Francisco air.

6th Tier:  Carlos Guillen, Jack Cust, David Murphy, Jeff Francoeur, Chris Young, Jose Guillen, Matt LaPorta, Mark Teahen, Coco Crisp, Seth Smith, Matt Diaz, Scott Podsednik, Elijah Dukes, Carlos Gomez, Conor Jackson, Chase Headley, Travis Snider, Willy Taveras, Eugenio Velez, Juan Rivera, Cameron Maybin, Drew Stubbs, Daniel Murphy, Ryan Sweeney, Brian Giles, Lastings Milledge, Gerardo Parra

     Another tier of potential but without much excitement, so I’ll just highlight a few that I like going later in the draft.  Matt LaPorta has great power upside but might need another year before reaching his potential, Mark Teahen could finally hit 20 HR in his first year with the White Sox, Travis Snider has sleeper power potential, Drew Stubbs could be a great power/speed combo, and I like both Eugenio Velez and Carlos Gomez for quality late round speed options.

     Cameron Maybin could be the steal in your draft, though, as he has failed to deliver on the hype, not once but twice.  But let’s not forget that he only turns 23 in April and could turn into the power/speed threat that we’ve all been expecting if he earns the starting job with the Marlins this spring.  A lot of people have been down on him since the hype started two years ago, so hopefully your fellow GMs will overlook him and you’ll be able to steal him late.  I know I’m going to.

7th Tier and beyond:  Randy Winn, Austin Jackson, Trevor Crowe, Gary Matthews, Jr., Rick Ankiel, Brett Gardner, Desmond Jennings, Tony Gwynn, Jr., Michael Saunders, Jason Heyward, Ben Francisco, Garrett Anderson, Nate Schierholtz, Fred Lewis, Ryan Church, Scott Hairston, Marcus Thames, Matt Joyce, Jonny Gomes, Ryan Spilborghs, Chris Dickerson, Willie Harris, Fernando Tatis, Reggie Willits, Jason Michaels, Jordan Schafer, Eric Hinske, Reed Johnson, Will Venable, Brandon Moss, Willie Bloomquist, Wilkin Ramirez

     And then there’s the rest of them.  The part-timers, the back-ups, the short end of the platoon.  These are goign to be your super late round flyers and likely the handcuffs to your injury prone outfielders.  There are some that have som edecent upside, but i’m not thinking any of these guys unti after round 20 at the earliest.  I’ll definitely keep an eye on Austin Jackson, who could start for the Tigers this year, Trevor Crowe who might get a look in Cleveland, Tony Gwynn, Jr. could be starting for the Brewers, and maybe Desmond Jennings if the Rays are looking to mix things up.  Beyond that, I’m looking at a bunch of waiver pick ups if I incur injuries or am just totally desperate for a body in there.

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