2009 Fantasy Baseball Keeper Report: Part I

     Keeper leagues add another dimension to fantasy baseball.  Not only do you have to consider the value of a particular player, but how that player’s value will change over time and fit into your overall team strategy.  The first decision of the season for keeper leaguers is perhaps the most important.  It sets the tone for your team philosophy, the core of your roster, what you still need to get at auction, and how much money you have left to get it.  Therefore, this decision should be carefully considered in the context of your entire roster of potential keepers.  Keeper rules vary widely, so lets assume standard 5×5 scoring with 12-15 teams and a starting salary cap of $250.  Questions about your particular situation are welcomed in the comments section.

Catcher

     There are several good options for you at catcher, but none of them is really great.  Of course, there is Russell Martin who will hit for some power, steal some bases, and usually fade down the stretch.  Such a power and speed combo is rare at catcher.  We also all know all about Brian McCann and his power potential.  I will pass on a tidbit I saw in an interview with him.  He went on a diet and lost 25 pounds in the off-season.  Geovany Soto was exactly what his owners hoped he would be.  He hit for good power and a respectable average.  With more experience hopefully he won’t fade in the second half this season.  Any one of these three I would keep for $25 or under.

     Rounding out the list of old faithfuls at the catcher position are Joe Mauer and Victor Martinez.  I am not a huge fan of Mauer.  He is overpriced due to expectations which he has never met.  Can he hit?  Sure, but that power we have waited on may never come.  Martinez is a mystery.  He could come back and hit for his old 20-something power with a nice BA, but we can’t just ignore what happened last season.  He does seem healthy this spring, however, and is hitting with power.  I would not go higher than $18 for either.

     Finally we come to the newbies.  Chris Ianetta took over the starting job last season and looked great.  With a great AB/HR ratio, he could take another step forward in his second full season.  Ryan Doumit also made good on some of the promise he had showed.  With a solid BA and decent power, his surrounding cast is his biggest drawback.   If you love these guys and see serious upside here, then spend $18.  If you want to play it a little safer, go no higher than $15

Keep only if they are super cheap and/or you have few keepers -  Bengie Molina, Mike Napoli, Jorge Posada

First Base

     Full of sluggers, having one of these first basemen at your core is a nice anchor for your team.  Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, Miguel Cabrera, and Mark Teixeira are all no brain keepers.  Some of the best fantasy properties you can have.   The only real batting average threat of the group is Ryan Howard, who’s power numbers will make up much of that downside.  If you have any of these guys for under $40, it is a non-decision to protect them.   Also among the elite are Lance Berkman, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, and Justin Morneau.  All of these guys are virtual locks to produce solid power and RBI numbers.  I would pay up to $35 for any of them.

     This next group is pale in comparison, so make sure that if you are going to keep them, it is for the right price.  If you are looking for upside, take a peak at Joey Votto.  There could be more power coming, but don’t count on the steals continuing.  I’d go to $25 for him.  Carlos Delgado had one hell of a second half in 2008, but you don’t get those stats for this season.  He is not young, and if he hadn’t had such a huge comeback after the All-Star break, he would have had one of his worst seasons.  Pay no more than $23.  Kevin Youkilis is going to be a big decision for a lot of GMs this year.  He hit for great average and more power than he had in the past.  Maybe that was a sign he had figured it out, but I wouldn’t bet more than $23 to find out (I’d go $2 higher at third base).     I am a believer that we have seen the best we will see from Carlos Pena.  He still has power, but that batting average was creeping down into old familiar territory.  His price should do the same – $20 tops.

Keep only if they are super cheap and/or you have few keepers – Derrek Lee, Jason Giambi

Second Base

     At the top, we have a new king.  Despite injuries, Ian Kinser kicked ass again last season.  He has power, he has speed, and his batting average soared last year.  If he can just get 600 ABs, he will go 30-30.  I’ll pay for that upside until he hits $32.  Another great option is Brandon Phillips.  No, he didn’t go 30-30 again, but he was still very solid.  I see no reason to downgrade him at all.  I’ll pay $30 to keep him.  Let’s not downgrade Chase Utley too much for his off-season injury.  He is ahead of schedule and should not miss all that much of the season.  His power is real, but his speed is not in the same league as the top two options.  Go to $30 for him if he looks healthy at your keeper deadline. 

     Still there, and still valuable, is Brian Roberts.  The speedy little guy will likely not hit for much power, but will steal you over 30 bases with a plus batting average.  He will score a bunch of runs too.  Go as high as $27 for him.  Dan Uggla was one of the best hitters in the game for the first half of the season, belting 23 HRs.  His second half was pathetic however, and his totals suffered.  I’d still pay $25 to keep him, and hope he can put together 2 halves that make his price a bargain.  Finally we come to Dustin Pedroia.  He had a great year (that still did not warrant an MVP).  I am still pretty skeptical about whether or not he will do it again.  I believe that the batting average is real, but before I pay as though he is reliable, I wanna see him to it again.  $22 tops.

Keep only if they are super cheap and/or you have few keepers -  Rickie Weeks, Howie Kendrick, Robinson Cano, Mark DeRosa

Shortstop

     There is no need to go into much detail about the top three options here.  Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins sit alone atop this list.  Pay whatever price you have them for.  With Alexi Ramirez we have a potential fourth member of this club.  Only one year of stats to look at makes this a bit of a gamble, but the upside is so high it is probably worth the risk to go as high as $28. 

     The real trick is drawing the line if you have one of the next several options.  There are several 20-90 type players out there at shortstop.  JJ Hardy had a very nice year in 2008, showing 20+ power and even raised his OBP by .020.  He could easily take another step up this season especially if he stays at the top of the batting order.  Pay $25 for him.  Troy Tulowitzki is another potential power hitting shortstop.  He was plagued by injuries last season, but has shown power in the past.  His upside is similar to Hardy’s so pay $23.  With Jhonny Peralta you know what you are getting.  He will net you about 20 HRs with a mediocre batting average.  Go as high as $22.  I like the upside that Stephen Drew has.  He is young enough that his power could still take a nice turn upward, and has made progress in the batting average category.  I would call him a steal at $20, and since I like him would pay a couple bucks more.  I guess I have to address the Derek Jeter issue.  The bottom line is, he is in decline.  He had a bad year offensively in 2008, and there is a good chance you can get him back this year in your auction for less than your protect cost.  Personally, I would not pay more than $16 (and I’m a Yankee fan).

Keep only if they are super cheap and/or you have few keepers – Rafael Furcal, Derek Jeter, Mike Aviles, Miguel Tejada

Third Base

     If you are lucky enough to have David Wright or Alex Rodriguez in a keeper league, you probably don’t need to be told to keep them.  I would also pay as much as $30 to have Evan Longoria or Aramis Ramirez.  After these four options, the talent level drops off dramatically.  Chipper Jones is great when healthy, but the poor odds of  him getting 550 ABs will limit me to paying $23 to keep him.  No more though.  As I said in the first base section, I would go as high as $25 for Kevin Youkilis at third base.  I do not expect him to take a step up this year, however.  Count on Chris Davis being kept this year.  People love this kid.  I see a guy with a suspect batting average and nice power with less than one full season of experience.  I go no higher than $20 for him.

     That is pretty much it for guys I would consider keeping at third base for this season.  I would not bet that Aubrey Huff, Jorge Cantu, or Melvin Mora will prove to be worthy of keeping.  If you can convince your competition that they are worth it, trade them immediately.  Nor do I think that Chone Figgins should be depended on.  Brandon Wood is hitting very well so far this spring, and could very well earn time at third.  I am a little less sour about Garret Atkins, but his year last season was a step backwards.  We may have seen his best already.  If you have these guys for cheap (say under $10) and don’t have many guys then I can see keeping them.  I would rather let someone pay the inflated price for them and draft someone else.

Keep only if they are super cheap and/or you have few keepers – Adrian Beltre, Alex Gordon, Troy Glaus, Garret Atkins, Ryan Zimmerman

For Part II Click HERE

written by Keith J. Giordano