Bleacher Banter – Adam Dunn

There are certain topics that we geeks go back and forth on.  What’s better than arguing with a friend about baseball players and their fantasy value for hours at a time?   Well, this one, and many more to come, we’re taking public.  Howard and I have been “discussing” the fantasy value of Adam Dunn.  We are both going to give you a short version of our arguements, and then let your comments decide who is right.  Settle this for us, huh?

Keith:     

40 HR, but not much else for a high price

Adam Dunn is an overrated fantasy commodity.   It is easy to say that 40 HR and 100RBI are a lock, but there is more to this puzzle.  His runs scored have been right around 100 traditionally, but last year saw a drastic drop.  With his new team, that number is not only unlikely to rebound, but his other numbers should suffer as well.  The Nationals scored the 3rd lowest amount of runs in 2008 (missing last place by 4 runs).  His speed dropped off last year as well.  We haven’t even gotten to the batting average portion of his problem.  A .235 average is terrible.  This isn’t something that you can just dismiss.  That is at least .040 below what an mid-level fantasy team’s BA should be (let alone a good team).  To draft him is to take the 550 ABs your best hitter gives you at about .310 and turns it into a mediocre .275.  That costs you points!  He is a two category asset when all this is considered.  For the price I would have to pay to get him, I would rather get someone that helps in 4 categories, and use the extra money for another need.

Not only do chicks dig the longball, but it wins championships

Howard:

     Oh come on now!  Somebody help me here!  40 bombs, man!  40 bombs each year for the last 5 years!  You just can’t deny that, nor can you hardly find anyone else these days to do that.  There were two guys last year that hit 40 or more home runs and one of them was Adam Dunn.  Yes, the batting average sucks — no question.   But you can easily work around that.  If you’re planning on drafting Dunn and his, as my good ol’ Uncle Mike likes to say, “country strong” power, you’re not grabbing him in the top 3 rounds are you?  No way.  Of course not.  So use those picks to build up your other positions with high average guys.  It’s as simple as that.  If your first 2 picks are guys who hit over .300 and get roughly 550 AB each , then you’re set.  Sure, you won’t lead your league in BA, but you don’t need to finish first in average to win a roto championship and you certainly don’t need to always win it in head to head match-ups.  But you do need power to win the overall and Dunn has plenty.  So why not get a leg up on HR and RBI and draft one guy that does the work of two?  You’ll be ahead of the game.  Don’t sweat the batting average so much.  It’s one category.  Speed?  You’re not drafting this guy for speed.  Any swipe you get is a bonus.  But it should also be noted that he’s averaged half a dozen SB over the last 3 seasons.  And if you need a third category to increase his appeal, don’t worry.  The runs scored will come.  He’s got solid young hitters behind him in Ryan Zimmerman and Elijah Dukes so when he gets on base with that delicious .381 career OBP, someone will be there to knock him home.  Trust me — grab Dunn at the right moment in your draft and you’ll be laughing all the way to the top of your standings.  Now someone go get Keith a knife and fork, cuz he just got served!