Fantasy Baseball Breakouts – High vs. Low Profile
Posted Under: Archive - Other, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep, Fantasy Baseball Theory
He's good, but will he have the chance?
Rookies get all the hype. Many GMs will go into the draft or auction this season and be all set to overbid on players such as David Price or Matt Wieters. There is plenty of upside for those players, and they could be great players in their rookie campaign. For those of you who chose to dig a little bit deeper, there are gems hidden. Players who have the potential to be good contributors, but haven’t gotten the opportunity to show what they can do. Sometimes they struggled in their early years, sometimes they were blocked by other players. Sometimes, it rains (thank you Crash Davis). Given the choice between overpaying for an overhyped player that may or may not produce at a higher level, and a lower profile player given regular playing time, I’m saving that money.
A lack of options may give him another shot
There are lower profile players at catcher that could well deliver a better season than Wieters. One such player is Jeff Clement. Only getting about 200 ABs last season, Clement struggled in the early months of the season hitting under .200 in May, June, and July. However, in August he received a third of his total ABs and managed to hit .325 with an OBP of .375. He may see a position change shortly (possibly to first), but for now qualifies at catcher. Even if he does move to first base, his primary competition will be Russell Branyan, who’s bat is just full of holes. Clement was thought of as an excellent prospect only a short time ago, and with more regular ABs could prove to be a late steal in may drafts. JR Towles is another example. He was a great hitter in the minors, but struggled greatly when given the job outright last season. The Astros still don’t have a better option, so he could be given another shot at the job. If he can manage to start the season well, he could hold it down all year. Towles burned me bad last season, but that doesn’t mean that I will shy away if he looks as if he will get another chance.
Make sure he is still slated to start at 2B before drafting
How long are people going to continue to wait for Howie Kendrick to break out? He was kept for two years straight in one of my keeper leagues, but that GM has finally seen the light. Despite that, many GMs are going to continue to overpay for the hype that surrounds this kid. Want another option you can possibly sneak by your competition? Try Skip Schumaker. He hit for a great average last season, had 8 HRs and SBs, and has the potential to steal many more bases (as he did in the minors). It looks as if he is going to be given a shot at the second base job this season, and the less informed members of your league may not know this. Kendrick may break out, but at this point Schumaker has just as much upside.
He still has power, just like Davis
Another popular over-hyped player in drafts this season is sure to be Chris Davis. With his eye-popping power potential GMs are going to draft him early, and overbid for his services. Hmmmm…. where have I heard this story before? Oh yeah! Josh Fields!!! Their stats from their respective first chance at big league duty are remarkably similar. Fields was not given a real opportunity to win the job last season, and subsequently got hurt. This year he is going to have a real shot at the job, and his main competition is Wilson Betemit. Now Betemit has stuck around in the majors for some time now, so he definitely has a shot, but his terrible OBP and inability to hit left-handed pitching is going to hurt his chances greatly. Fields has just as much potential as Davis, and will be much cheaper. Check on this position battle come late spring.
No more deer meat, kid.
How many of you can’t wait to get a piece of Mike Aviles? I actually don’t need you to answer, cause I know that the answer is a lot. With a superb batting average, some power and some speed, he is sure to be overvalued come draft day. Don’t forget about an alternative that will be a fraction of the price. Clint Barmes is the apparent starter at second base for the Rockies this season, but played 36 games at shortstop last season. Yup, that’s right. I’m plugging deer meat boy. Barmes had one more home run and five more SBs than Aviles did last season, and did so in fewer ABs. The Venison Kid was even able to hold that batting average at .290 for the season. Gee, think you can use that money you can save by taking Barmes on someone else?
Dude can do it all, at a cheaper price
Even last season GMs were falling all over themselves to get Cameron Maybin. The speedy outfielder will finally get a shot at the big leagues this season, and thus the reaching for him in drafts begins. He could be great. Or…… he could struggle just like most rookies. Instead of overpaying or reaching too early to grab the next big thing, why not take a long look at Denard Span. Last season he was a late find for many teams that rode him to a great BA, some power, and a handful of steals in 374 ABs. His defensive play was enough to assure him of a spot this season in the starting lineup, and his bat could possibly assure him the leadoff spot. He is young, fast, and his minor league numbers support much of what he showed last year. Take advantage of the fact that his less than full season of ABs hides his great numbers.
His price really hurt teams last year
Someone in one of my keeper leagues kept David Price for a ridiculous amount of money. It made me laugh. The kid could be great, but what is the point of spending all that money on such a gamble? The whole point of fantasy baseball is to find the bargains in the league so you can pay large amounts for studs. If you pay large amounts for the sleeper type players, then you can only afford to surround them with mediocre talent. So if Price doesn’t pay off huge, then that team is going to suffer greatly (just ask those that overpaid for Ian Kennedy or Phil Huges last season). Take a look at Fausto Carmona instead. Last season he took a major step backward from his stellar 2007 campaign. He spent a lot of time on the DL, and wasn’t very effective when on the bump. This year he is looking good in winter ball, and may have fixed a flaw in his delivery. Because there is injury involved GMs have to be cautious about this player, but he has fallen so far on so many draft sheets that he will go for less than half of what he did last year. Just monitor his health this spring and if he looks good, jump.
Of course, these are not the only examples of low profile players that could outproduce their over-hyped counterparts. There are plenty more out there. The point is that reputation should not be the guiding force in your bidding. As my high school baseball coach said over and over: “A lot of potential just means they haven’t done shit yet.” Very true.
written by Keith J. Giordano
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Reader Comments
I like the Jeff Clement call, and even the Skip Schumaker plug. Both could be nice late round steals. I’m undecided on Carmona, but that could just be lingering bitterness from last season.
However, I’m not so sure about Barmes and Span. It’s not that I don’t think they’ll both begin the season in the starting lineup, it’s whether or not they can maintain it with who they have as their competition.
The Rockies were very happy last year with power prospect Jeff Baker when he took the second base job and ran with it in June and July. It wasn’t until a major August slump when he found himself riding the pine again. But he did make it back in a platoon role in September, so he’s got qualities that Colorado likes. Barmes was getting the PT at short in the wake of Tulowitzki’s injury. This year he’ll be battling regularly with Baker unless Tulo or Helton get hurt.
As for Span, that Twinkies OF situation is crowded. Besides Span, you’ve got Delmon Young, Carlos Gomez, Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel all competing for OF/DH duties. You also have Jason Pridie and (forgive me) Luis Matos both in camp this season. When Span started to get playing time last year it was due to the complete fade/disappearance of Gomez in the second half. Gomez is a definite leadoff candidate himself. The fact that he [Span] was given the job and ran with it is a huge positive, but with the number of guys that will be competing for at bats, he’s going to have to really stand out in order to get into the lineup every day.
Remember that these recomendations take into account relative price to players that will put up similar numbers, but have much more hype. Barmes vs. Aviles for example. Barmes (IMO) is going to be much much cheaper and not much much worse. He has been handed the starting job already, and I believe he will hold it long enough to get at least 400 ABs. Besides, it is only a matter of time before Helton does get hurt.
With regard to Span. Gomez doesn’t play nearly the same defense as Span and only managed a .296 OBP last season. I am not worried about him cutting into Span’s playing time. Delmon Young should hold down an OF spot for 500 ABs worth. As far as Kubel and Cuddyer goes. They are a perfect platoon match at DH or the occasional spot start in the OF. Kubel cant hit lefties, and Cuddyer can’t hit righties.
Remember folks, we are talking about value here. Will all of these guys work out? Maybe not. But for each one that does, you are saving a ton of bid money by grabbing them instead of an over hyped player. That is money you can go use to get a true stud.
In regard to keeping David Price, I think you’re off base. Anyone who picked him up at the start of last season, did get him as a bargain, keeping him is just smart. It’s a risk, but it has great reward potential. It’s easy to keep or pay big for Pujols or Rodriguez, it’s the people that can find and keep gems like Price that will build the foundation for great fantasy teams for many years to come.
I think that in the interest of honesty, we must disclose that the pro-david price comment came from the team that protected him mentioned in the article.
I think I can step in as a somewhat impartial third party….
One of the things we have to do is atleast disclose the keeper process in our league to help assess value for the other readers.
In our primary league (15 team, mixed where we draft and start 2 at every position, 6 OF, 9 P – standard 5×5 roto – $260 draft cap) we can keep up to 9 players. The first protect is free. The next guy costs $10, then $15, then $20, etc. The cost of David Price to the team that protected him is $30.
We also have to note that our draft is a blnd bid auction where teams submit a draft sheet without knowing everyone else’s bids. Players are dispersed based on highest bid and tiebreakers.
Now while protecting a rookie like Price for $30 is a little high, I don’t think it’s unreasonable for a team that is looking towards the future. Based on league history and probable protects for other teams, an owner that covets a talent like Price may have to overspend to ensure getting that player.
It’s not like he was some hidden gem or super sleeper. He was hyped immensely last year and 100% lived up to the hype when he was brought up in September. His performance, both in the regular season and in the playoffs, was solid.
If Price was available in our main draft, I can almost guarantee that atleast 1 or 2 other tems would have put in high bids for him. I know I would have. In our league, I’ve seen several $30+ bids, whether it’s for an established non-keeper type player or a hot up and comer.
And maybe it wouldn’t have been $30 for Price, but for the extra few bucks, this team has locked him in. I don’t think it was a bad move at all, and when Price delivers the goods this year, you might have a little crow to eat.
Remember, the league laughed at me when I protected Longoria for $35 last year.
we have laughed at you for more than that…… what howard didnt mention is that also traditional in our league is that starters (except for the very elite) are less valuable as keepers than hitters. only 14 starters including price were kept for the 2009 season.
i agree that price was not some uber-sleeper and may not have gone cheap. but they spent $30 on a guy that could well open the season in the minors. they could have had roy oswalt, scott kazmir, john lackey, or james shields (all of whom are available as well as more) for the exact same cost as the spent on price. that is overpaying for a gamble. oh, and did i mention, he was the third starter this team kept. for the context of this league, this is a lot of money to spend on price. obviously, i didnt feel going into such detail was too much detail, i found it easier to just say that they paid too much and move on.
Yes, they definitely could have had guys like Oswalt or Kazmir or Lackey or Shields for similar money — no question. But sometimes you just have to go with your gut about a player.
We all knew what Price was all about. We saw him pitch in college and we saw him pitch in the minors. When he came up last year, he delivered on all of our expectations.
He was going to go for big money in auctions and he was probably going to go higher in snake drafts than a kid with his experience should be going.
So you have to say to yourself — How much do I really want him? How much do I believe in this guy? How big of a bid to I have to make to ensure that I get him? Do I want to run the risk that someone is going to take him away from me in the draft or do I want to just make the investment now and lock him in?
Not to mention…how many times, in all the years we’ve been doing the blind bid draft, have you seen someone throw a big bid on a guy and have it be $10, $15, or even $20 higher than the next bid. That’s a colossal waste of bid dollars right there. I think they did the right thing for how they feel about Price and his abilities.
If you believe strongly enough in a player, then I don’t see the wrong in it. Sure you have to adjust your draft a little more to compensate, but I’m sure you’d rather do that than watch a player you let go end up succeeding for a rival team.
As for him being the third starter they protected, no, I didn’t think that was the wisest of moves. Not keeping Price, but keeping another starter who is a big gamble as well – Francisco Liriano. I would have chosen between the two, if it was up to me and I would have let Liriano go.
But to say that they shouldn’t have kept Price for $30, I disagree completely.
overpaid for an over-hyped player that hasn’t proven a damn thing in the majors and may start the season in the minors. roy oswalt or david price for $30? im taking oswalt every time.
well, that’s where you’re wrong, Keith.
“hasn’t proven a damn thing in the majors” is a completely inaccurate statement. In the time he was allotted by the team in 2008, he most certainly did prove himself and will continue to do so in the future.
The only thing that mentions Price starting in the minors is a post on CBS Sportsline. No other site, including that of the Rays, is hinting at that, so that’s speculation at best. In my opinion, the team didn’t trade Edwin Jackson so they could plug in a subpar 5th starter while Price continues to dominate Triple-A. And if he does go down, his return will probably be as imminent as Longoria’s was when the Rays started his season last year in 2008.
actually, i was referring to an interview i heard with rays GM andrew freidman on the jim rome radio show in which he said that he had no problem at all sending him down for a couple months. the interview was on 2/23/09, feel free to listen to it. he didnt say it would happen definitely, but to earn $30 price cant spend too much time down there.
i dont consider his 20 innings in 2008 to be proof of much. and again, we are talking about $30 here. im not saying he isnt going to be good, but to be worth $30 even the better pitchers in the league have to have a good year. this guy is a rookie who’s role is not certain. his post season success in a very small sample size, but has driven his price through the roof
I think there are a few things you guys aren’t taking into consideration. First, let’s talk economics; supply and demand. We have 15 teams with 35 roster spots = 525 total players drafted. 30 teams in MLB, roughly with 16 draftable players (yes I know this is subjective, but went with 9 Position Players/5 SP/2 RPs) so = 480 players to choose from. Demand greater than supply means that the prices paid for players will increase, it’s just that simple.
Second, given our keeper $ rates, why do you think price was $30, through your reasoning couldn’t I have choose him first, and therefore he was free? I’d look at keepers in totality, and say that I pay $100 to keep 6 players and therefore each protect has cost me $17, so my analysis was to justify the $17 price tag, which I did.
Third, I don’t disagree with you guys totally, I’m not a big fan of keeping pitching, especially young, unproven often injured pitching, but I don’t have bats, so I have build the core somewhere.
Lastly, just started checking this site out, and it rocks. You guys are doing a great job, I really enjoy reading your articles, even if they’re completely off base like this one – just kidding.
Hey Ryno, thanks for the plug.
“Second, given our keeper $ rates, why do you think price was $30, through your reasoning couldn’t I have choose him first, and therefore he was free? I’d look at keepers in totality, and say that I pay $100 to keep 6 players and therefore each protect has cost me $17, so my analysis was to justify the $17 price tag, which I did”
This is a perfectly valid way to look at our protect strutcure, but not one I agree with. I always look at my core group as the cheapest in the structure. This is because keeping them is not an option, and you can’t get talent like that in the auction. Therefore, the more “bubble” guys you add due to hunches, theories, or man-crush are the ones that are being “added to” your protect list. If you have Arod, Lidge, Berkman, Kinsler, and Price, doesn’t it make sense that you are keeping the top guys regardless of what happens? Isn’t your biggest gamble or worst protect the one that is easiest to justify dropping? That is why i always consder my worst protect to be in the highest price slot. That way, I don’t overpay for guys with a lesser chance of success.
Again, if you wanna take the cost average, that is perfectly legit, but I see it mainly as a way to justify keeping borderline guys.