2009 Fantasy Baseball Rankings — Starting Pitcher Tiers

So where does this year's rookie phenom rank?

Before I take you through this year’s tiers for starting pitchers, I have to say that this article is really more of a cursory glance than a full analysis.  I mean, after all, with 30 major league teams and an average rotation consisting of 5 pitchers, that’s already 150 players to examine without even talking about spot starters or mid-season rookie call-ups.  Pitching is, without question, the deepest position out there.  And while the average expert says that you should be splitting up your auction dollars 65%/35% in favor of hitting, pitching, in my opinion, requires a lot more analysis.  Categories like HR and RBI are very easy to track and make improvements in during the fantasy season, but get stuck with just one or two WHIP-killers in your rotation, and it’s the bottom of a deep, dark hole for you with little chance of climbing out.  That being said, stay tuned as I will be doing a more in-depth look at the pitchers.  For now though, here are the tiers…

He's still #1

Tier 1:  Johan Santana, Tim Lincecum, Brandon Webb, C.C. Sabathia

Bottom line, these are the guys that will go the highest or for the most bid money in upcoming drafts.  Does that mean they will be the best?  No guarantees, but the odds are with you…for the most part.  Santana leads the way again and there’s no doubt in my mind that he is the best choice to anchor your fantasy rotation.  In each of the last 5 seasons he has thrown for over 200 innings, cleared 200 K’s and has never had less than 15 wins.  Now some might point out that his 206 Ks last year were the lowest in that span and that his 1.15 WHIP (the highest since 2002) are a sign that he is wearing down, but I think it had more to do with the adjustments of coming to New York from Minnesota and the burdens that carries.  I expect another fantastic year with more wins now that the Mets have dramatically improved their pen.

Another rock solid workhorse is Webb who actually, over the last 3 years, has averaged more innings pitched than any other major league hurler.  To go with that little statistic are the average of 185 Ks and 19 wins in that time frame.  Throw whatever label you want on him — a work horse, an innings eater, whatever.  Despite the occasional poor run of games (usually in the month of June), Webb has been one of the most reliable pitchers in the game.  And that sinker???  Oh baby, that thing drops!

Who you callin' a freak??

Joining the top tier this season is last year’s NL Cy Young Award winner, Lincecum.  This kid’s got a lot going on.  First of all, he’s the perfect example of not judging a book by its cover.  He looks like this scrawny little skate rat, but damn does his arm have power.  He had a 2.62 ERA in his first full season along with a 1.17 WHIP and a whopping 265 strikeouts.  To go with that, he racked up 18 wins on a very feeble Giants team.  He’s got a lot of promise and shoudl produce a season relatively similar in the stats department.  One thing to keep an eye on, though, is that crazy whacked out delivery.  He, along with his father, has been very adament about not tweaking his delivery with that super long stride and crazy elbow torque.  Some think that it’s an injury waiting to happen while others think it just may work for the undersized fireballer.  I say draft with confidence.

Rounding out the top tier is the newest Yankee gazillionaire, Sabathia.  Who could argue with that second half display of greatness last season?  A lot of folks think he should have received the NL Cy Young just based on his second half.  Me?  I have some concerns.  Rather than repeating myself, I’ll just refer you to a post from the end of January.  Check out #1.  

Tier 2:  Roy Halladay, Dan Haren, Jake Peavy, Ervin Santana, Josh Beckett, Cole Hamels, John Lackey

Only getting better

This second tier is an interesting mix.  Halladay has been fantasy gold the last 3 years and, save for the oddball injuries he’s dealt with in years before that, has been pretty consistent.  Haren has racked up solid wins the last 4 years with more than respectable K’s.  What seems to work best for him, dating back to his Oakland days, is not being in the limelight.  He’s never bee considered the staff ace yet he always seems to deliver like one.  Pitching behind Webb in Arizona for another year will only increase his comfort level and probably his stats.

Peavy, Lackey, and Beckett are all coming off of down years and are looking for a big ‘09 rebound.  Each one of them are capable of producing top tier stats, but whether it’s Jake’s elbow or John’s triceps or Josh’s shoulder (and blisters, of course), they have to be monitored closely.  I like Lackey and Beckett for this season, but the state of the Padres makes me worry a little about Peavy.  Obviously his wins should suffer, but I’m hoping he doesn’t ry to push his limits too much trying to bail out the potential cellar dwellars of the weak NL West.

The last two are the youngest of the group and both should continue their ascension in the bigs.  Hamels has 200+ strikeout potential and just got himself a fat ass contract to go with his playoff dominance and World Series ring.  He’ll be quite comfortable as the staff ace in Philly and should deliver you a solid year.  The other Santana finally put it all together last year and should continue to improve, leaving that abyssmal 2007 behind him.  I expect somewhere around 16 wins again with another year of 200+ strikeouts.

Tier 3:  Scott Kazmir, Javier Vazquez, Chad Billingsley, Roy Oswalt, Cliff Lee, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Rich Harden, A.J. Burnett, Edinson Volquez, James Shields, Joba Chamberlain, Jon Lester, David Price

Braves breakout?

So now we’re moving into a little less “sure thing” territory.  To go through all of them would make this the longest post in the history of blog posts, so I’ll just highlight a few things.  I see Vazquez having a fantastic year for the Braves, another solid year for Billingsley, and if he can stay injury free, Harden too.  I don’t see Lee havign the same year but I also don’t expect too much of a dropoff.  Dice-K’s walks trouble me and they should trouble you too as that is not an indication of good things to come.  Joba should be in the pen but, if not, then oodles of K’s.  And lastly, I love David Price.  You might end up in a bidding war, but in the end, he’ll be worth it.

Tier 4:  Felix Hernandez, Chris Young, Zack Greinke, Rickey Nolasco, Erik Bedard, Justin Verlander, Josh Johnson, Francisco Liriano, Matt Cain, Kevin Slowey, John Danks, Ted Lilly

Getting onto a little more shakey ground as far as consistency goes, but there are some guys here that will be great middle of your rotation options.  I like Bedard to rebound after getting his shoulder cleaned out at the end of last year.  No structural damage is always big.  He might be hard pressed for wins in Seattle but his strikeout potential is nice.  Liriano is another good one to take a shot on.  We all saw what he was capable of, so now thatthe arm has healed, he should be worth the risk.  I’ve always liked Cain (especially with the improved SF bullpen), Slowey shoudl be a solid play, and look for Danks to continue with his improvement.

Great sleeper potential now that he's in Arizona

Tier 5:  Derek Lowe, Clayton Kershaw, Chien-Ming Wang, Yovani Gallardo,  Andy Pettitte, Ryan Dempster, Aaron Harang, Scott Baker, Matt Garza, Max Scherzer, Jair Jurrjens, Jered Weaver, Brett Myers, Carlos Zambrano, Jonathan Sanchez, Bronson Arroyo, Brandon Morrow, Jon Garland

So many pitchers, so little time.  But in a nutshell here, I like Kershaw, Baker, and Garza.  They’re not ace material, but should give you above average Ks and decent ratios.  Scherzer and Morrow are interesting options although oth have been linked to closer duty rumors…hey, maybe that’s a good thing.  Gallardo may have tremendous talent, but his injuries make him a nightmare pick and the big Z shoudl continue his descent.  I’m putting my money on Garland this year as the guy most likely to succeed with his move to the NL.  I’ll be putting some bid money on him, that’s for sure.

Best of the rest:  Gil Meche, Andy Sonnanstine, Adam Wainwright, Randy Johnson, Ubaldo Jimenez, John Maine, Mark Buehrle, Oliver Perez, Jesse Litsch, Dustin McGowan, Joe Saunders, Hiroki Kuroda, Fausto Carmona, Johnny Cueto, Nick Blackburn, Jeremy Guthrie, Dana Eveland, Aaron Cook

Tough calls here for consistency, but in comparison to what’s out there that I haven’t listed, the’re palatable.  You’ll definitely see your share of rough outings, but these guys, on the whole, should do more good than bad to your team. If I had to put any of them on my roster, I’d go with Meche, Sonnanstine, Blackburn and the Unit.  But that’s just off the top of my head if a gun was pointed at it.

Closers are coming next to finish off the tiers.  If you missed anything, you can check it out here at the RotoBuzz 2009 Player Rankings and Position Tiers