Club 20-20

Can your guys find their way in?

If you’ve just read my new article, “Gettin’ Trendy” on AddictFantasySports.com (if it’s not out now, it will be within 24 hours), you’ll know I’ve been talking about keeping up with the trends in baseball.  Doing so is vital to your fantasy success and keeps you a step ahead of your competition.  To understand that we are going through a power decline and subsequent increase in speed, is integral in buiding a competitive and well balanced fantasy squad this year.  But there’s also another trend starting to develop, and if you aren’t paying attention, it, and your competition, will soon pass you by.

A substantial portion of the elite performers in fantasy baseball usually produce in two or three of the five standard rotisserie categories.  A player like Albert Pujols is fantastic for home runs, RBI and batting average, while his stolen base and runs scored production fall to the wayside.  Contrary is a player like Brian Roberts, whose stolen base production is top notch while he also contributes towards batting average and runs scored.  You’re not concerned about his home run or RBI total;  there are others that can do that.  These players will undoubtedly go in the top part of your draft and usually are held onto for their specialties.  They come at a premium price, but are well worth it.

Charter Member

But then there’s another category of player.  To me, and the rest of the fantasy world, they are the super-elite; the most coveted come draft day.  They are the 5-tool studs.  They’re the guys that will bang you 30 odd home runs, hit triple digits in both the runs scored and RBI categories, keep their averages in the .300 range (+/- .01), and can steal bases with the best of them.  I remember years ago when Vladimir Guerrero was in his prime and standing atop the fantasy rankings with his 40 HR, almost 40 stolen bases, and big time production all around.  The coveted 40-40 club — it was the elitest of the elite. 

Each year we target these players in the draft.  If you don’t start the season with them, you’re trying to trade for them every chance you get.  Acquire enough of them and it hardly matters whether some of your $1 pick-ups don’t pan out.  They are constantly producing and can vault you to the top of your standings in a heartbeat. 

But as I said in my article, we are definitely looking at a power decline.  The 40-40 club is, for all intents and purposes, a pipe dream.  Sure, you’ve got your possibilities like Hanley Ramirez, but those guys show up as infrequently as Prince Fielder at a Weight Watchers meeting.  Even the 30-30 club has limited access.  Only 2 players found membership last season — the aforementioned Ramirez and Cleveland’s Grady Sizemore.  Both players are first round material and are almost impossible to acquire via trade.  But as I said, there’s a new trend starting.  If you look at the statistics over the last few years, you’ll see that the 20-20 club is raging and definitely open for business.

Is Hanley too cool for Club 20-20? Probably!

In 2005, Club 20-20 opened its doors to 5 members with Alfonso Soriano leading the way.  He was also a member of the 30-30 club, but was the only guy sitting at that table.  Joining Soriano at Club 20-20 were Alex Rodriguez, Jason Bay, Bobby Abreu, and Sizemore.  Each one of them had fantastic seasons and were, undoubtedly, on numerous winning fantasy squads.  The following season, membership grew to 7 with Soriano and Sizemore as the only holdovers, and in 2007, there were a whopping 14 players that made it in, 10 of them being first-timers.  Last season there was a little bit of a dropoff as only 9 players entered, but if you looked outside, there were atleast 7 guys just on the other side of the velvet rope.  Had only a few of them caught that extra dinger or swiped that extra base, the club would have had similar membership to the prior season.

But don’t be concerned by the slight dropoff.  If entering Club 20-20 parallels the 40 homer group of the 90’s, we could be in for a huge boost in membership.  From 1990-92 we saw only 2 players each year break the 40 HR barrier.  That number spiked a bit to 5 in ‘93 and then had a slight dropoff from 1994-95.  After that…KABLAAM!!! There were 17 players that cracked 40 or more home runs in 1996 and that number stayed in double digits until after the 2001 season.  The number of players that are finishing 20-20 by season’s end seem to be following the same pattern and we could be looking at a nice surge of players that blend the power and speed we fantasy owners covet every day.

Grady Sizemore: Club regular

By now you’re probably opening up another browser window to see who the nine members were last year.  I can save you the trouble and just list them here if you like:  Hanley Ramirez, Grady Sizemore, Carlos Beltran, Nate McLouth, Matt Holliday, Jayson Werth, Brandon Phillips, Bobby Abreu, and Corey Hart.  Easy enough.  Now it’s just a matter of adding them to your 2009 roster, right?  Well…maybe.  You see, the thing about Club 20-20, is that just because you make it in one year, you’re not guranteed admission the following season.  In fact, of the 22 players who qualified from 2005 through 2008, only Sizemore made it in every year.  The rest of them never stayed for more than 2 years and only 8 of them did it in consecutive seasons.

So who do you target?  Obviously guys like Ramirez and Sizemore are no-brainer first round guys and if you’re in a keeper league, then they, along with probably Holliday, Beltran and Phillips, will probably be held out of the player pool.  Abreu is getting up there in age, and at this moment, hasn’t signed anywhere.  A lot could depend on where he ends up and with my guess that he lands in San Francisco, it could be tough for him to repeat.  Hart seems to be growing as a player and with Milwaukee surging, I think he’s got a legitimate shot, while Holliday could have trouble maintaing his stolen base totals this year in Oakland.  As for Werth and McLouth, the jury’s still out, in my book.  If you haven’t already heard my thoughts on these guys, you can check out an older post of mine on one-hit wonders.

But don’t end your search just with last year’s members.  Like I said, not many of them stayed 20-20 in consecutive years, and 2007 members like B.J. Upton, Jimmy Rollins, Curtis Granderson and Ian Kinsler could all be welcomed back.  There are also those guys on the wrong side of the velvet rope last season that could finally gain entry — Jose Reyes, Alex Rios, Dustin Pedroia, and Matt Kemp (although he may be in the same category as Werth and McLouth, depending on where he bats in the lineup).  Some, like Reyes, will come at a steep price, but other could certainly be had in the later rounds or for a cheaper price in auctions…not by much, I’m sure, but a little cheaper.

Can Jay Bruce get beyond the velvet rope?

So when you’re preparing your draft sheets and your depth charts, when you’re discussing players in your war room, keep these thoughts in mind.  See who’s growing and see who’s stagnant.  See who’s done it before and see who has the possibility of doing it again.  Check out guys who have finally won full-time jobs and see who’s losing time to injury and up and comers.  Also look to the future stars and speculate a little.  We’ve already seen Jay Bruce has the power and his minor league numbers dictate that he’s got the speed.  Can he cross the rope?   Cameron Maybin’s been touted as a 5 tool threat.  Can he finally put it together and win the job coming out of Spring Training?  Obviously a lot of these guys are on everyone’s radar, but if this trend continues…if Club 20-20 opens its doors to the masses…you’re going to find plenty more players from which to choose.