Top 10 Offseason Moves With the Biggest Fantasy Impact

While I will undoubtedly have to alter this list with the impending signings of such free agents as Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Ben Sheets and Bobby Abreu, I still think it’s time to evaluate some of the hot stove action as we prepare for the upcoming fantasy season.  Whether you are in a keeper league or just starting the season from scratch, player movement is always important to track.  It not only has an effect on the value of the player himself, but that of the players he is joining and leaving as well.  Is the hitter moving to a better ballpark?  Is the pitcher bumping someone else from the rotation?  Does the player’s absence open up the door for someone else?  All of these questions are integral when deciding who’s going to make it onto your draft sheet and who’s going to be left out.  So without further ado, here’s my current Top 10 list for this offseason:   

10.  San Francisco Giants sign RP Jeremy Affeldt and RP Bobby Howry – On the surface, this doesn’t look like too big a deal, does it?  Maybe if your league counts holds as one of the pitching categories or something, right?  Well keep looking into it and ask yourself, “How many more wins would Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum have had if not for the blunderings of Tyler Walker?”  Walker appeared in 65 games last year, logged 53.1 innings and was credited with only 19 holds.  He had 4 blown saves listed (it felt like a lot more), gave up 7 HR and finished the year with a 4.56 ERA and a WHIP just under 1.300.  Not a glowing resume, is it?  Now I’m not saying that Affeldt and Howry are the be-all, end-all of middle relievers, but they are certainly going to strengthen that shakey bridge between starters and closer Brian Wilson.  They are both veterans who will instill confidence in manager Bruce Bochy and, with the addition of Merkin Valdez, should take some of the pressure off of the starters to go much further than the 7th inning or for Wilson to have to come in during the 8th.  Obviously, the Giants are going to have to add a bat or two to get some better run support, but the boost in the pen should certainly help increase the number of wins for the starters. 

Expectations are high, but the Orioles are wisely being cautious.

9.  Baltimore Orioles sign C Greg Zaun – One of the big stories in Baltimore was how the O’s parted ways with Ramon Hernandez, thus opening the door for uber-prospect Matt Wieters.  The 22 year old will have a crack at the starting job when Spring Training begins, and for all intents and purposes, the job should be his to lose.  That’s a lot of pressure for a rookie backstop.  Sure, there have some that have found success, but for every one Geovany Soto, there are atleast ten J.R. Towles.  Zaun is an experienced player, and while his offensive production isn’t all that spectacular, his defensive prowess and his ability to handle a pitching staff could be enough to make him the primary backstop if the kid starts slow out of the gate.  Wieters will still be a hot commodity come draft day and I’d love to grab him, but you’re going to have to temper your enthusiasm.  Zaun’s abilities and managers’ penchants for allowing pitchers to have personal catchers could set up a bigger platoon situation than you’d like. 

8.  Cleveland Indians sign RP Kerry Wood – Last season I was pretty high on Wood as he took over the closer’s role in Chicago.  He always had electric stuff and the change from starter to reliever was going to do nothing but help him.  And help him it did as he went 5-4 with 34 saves, a 3.26 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP.  Sure, they weren’t the most dominant numbers we’ve seen from 9th inning guys, but considering the player, the return value for what you probably paid for him in your fantasy draft was big.  This year, maybe not so much.  Wood walks into Cleveland with the closer’s job, but not with my full endorsement.  There’s, of course, the injury risk that comes with him (he missed some time in the second half last year), and the always dangerous shift from the NL to the AL, but there are also some viable alternatives for manager, Eric Wedge.  With players like Rafael Betancourt, Masahide Kobayashi and 2008 sensation Jensen Lewis (13-13 in save opps), Wedge won’t have to rely solely on Wood.  If he gets off to a similar start as he did last year, or if injuries occur, I can see a possible switch — even if it is only temporary.  Wood should be one of those middle to late round closers taken, but if you do, make sure you’ve got atleast Lewis as a contingency. 

Super sleeper in Beantown

7.  Boston Red Sox sign OF Rocco Baldelli and OF Mark Kotsay – This one is a bit more speculative on my part, but I’ve got a real strong feeling about it.  Penciled in as starters in the Boston outfield are Jason Bay, Jacoby Ellsbury and J.D. Drew.  Bay won’t be going anywhere and Drew should be in the lineup so long as he remains healthy (suspect at best, I know).  And then there’s Ellsbury.  If you look at the kid’s numbers from last year (.280-98-9-47-50), they look fantastic.  However, if you delve into the numbers a little deeper and check out his splits, you’ll see that the majority of those totals came in the first 2 months of the season.  After that, his production dropped off significantly and he ended up losing his job to Coco Crisp.  He eventually won it back again during the year, but lo and behold, come the post-season, he lost it again.  That doesn’t make me too confident.  Now couple that with the signings of Baldelli and Kotsay, and you’ve got the makings of a fantasy nightmare.  Kotsay doesn’t concern me too much as we already know what he’s all about, but Baldelli could become the sleeper of the year.  He was always a highly touted prospect in the Rays’ organization, and now that the doctor’s have finally diagnosed and treated him properly for his fatigue problems, he could push Ellsbury to the bench again this year if the kid goes cold again.  Keep your eye on this situation as the season starts.  You might need to find an alternative to Ellsbury for stolen bases and Baldelli could make for a huge late round sleeper.     

Returning to the NL

6.  Atlanta Braves acquire SP Javier Vazquez –  I’m a little torn on this one.  I can’t figure out if I like this move for Vazquez or if i really like this move for Vazquez.  We’ve seen it countless times.  An experienced pitcher makes a move from the AL to the NL and it’s like a career ressurection.  We usually see a significant decrease in ERA coupled with an equally significant increase in strikeouts — you get to throw more fastballs usually, and let’s not ignore the fact that we’re replacing the usual DH slugger with an undisciplined pitcher holding the bat.  So why should Vazquez be any different?  I don’t think he should be.  After 3 fairly successful seasons with the White Sox, Vazquez returns to his NL roots and should be the premier guy (Derek Lowe could be slotted as the #1 pitcher, but I don’t see him having a better year than Javy) for the Braves.  He’s much more experienced and should be able to take advantage of his newfound pitcher’s park in Turner Field.  Now dissenters could easily point out that his 2005 season in Arizona after a year with the Yankees in the AL was no great shakes, but c’mon.  Pitching at the BOB (now Chase Field) was just as bad, if not worse, as pitching at U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago.  I think Vazquez’ maturity is going to help him out significantly this season, and while I can’t share the same enthusiasm as the boys over at Fanball.com who have him ranked 7th overall amongst pitchers, I still think a major upswing in numbers is coming.  When all the super aces are off the board, consider Vazquez a more than viable option. 

5.  Philadelphia Phillies sign OF Raul Ibanez — I don’t care if he is 37 years old.  I like this signing for Ibanez.  I like it for the Phillies and I certainly like it for fantasy owners.  A 13 year veteran, Ibanez is probably one of the most underrated and under-appreciated players in the game.  He’s popped double digit home runs in each of his last 8 seasons and posts a career 3 year average of .291-89-26-113.  And all this while playing for Seattle and Kansas City where the ballparks are skewed for pitchers and the lineup protection is abyssmal.  Not to mention, his durability.  He’s only posted under 500 AB once in the last 6 seasons.  Well, welcome to the limelight, big guy.  Ibanez gets himself the ultimate hitter’s park and should slide right into the lineup left vacated by Pat Burrell, whome we’ll get to in a bit.  He’s another fierce left-handed bat and with guys like Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard hitting in front of him, the RBI opportunities are going to be huge.  I don’t see any reason why he shouldn’t post a line of .285-25-100 at a minimum this year. If you have him for super cheap in a keeper league, he might be an option depending on the depth of your league, and if he’s available in your draft, consider him a mid round pick-up and wait for the fireworks.

Pat the Bat goes SPLAT!?

4.  Tampa Bay Rays sign OF Pat Burrell – A very fitting follow-up to the Ibanez evaluation, but without the jubilant fanfare.  I don’t like this signing for Burrell’s numbers, by any means.  The move to the AL is going to take a serious toll on a guy who has a career average of .257 and strikes out once every 3.7 AB.  Pitchers throw it a lot differently in the AL and he’s definitely going to see a lot more breaking stuff than he has before.  Now it’s hard for me to say that his power numbers will drop due to the move from Citizen’s Bank Park to spacious Tropicana Field (he actually hit for more power on the road the past 3 years), but between the adjustments he’s going to be making, the new pitchers he’ll be facing on a regular basis, and the serious lack of protection he’ll have in the lineup, I think a decrease is almost inevitable.  I’ve also heard that he’ll mostly be playing DH, and while that’s good for his health, what kind of an effect is it going to have on him overall not playing the field?  There’s a different mentality when all you’re doing is swinging a bat and then sitting in the dugout the rest of the way.  The energy and the intensity just aren’t the same.  If most people in your league had the choice between Burrell and Ibanez, they’d probably be grabbing Pat the Bat.  That should work out in your favor.  

Homecoming King?

3.  Oakland A’s acquire OF Matt Holliday and sign 1B/DH Jason Giambi — This one, to me, has both its ups and downs for both players, so let’s go one at a time.  Holliday is another classic example of a fantastic hitter that could see a big decrease in his offensive production.  He’s averaged 32 HR, 113 RBI and a .329 average in the last 3 years in hitter’s paradise, Colorado.  He now makes the switch to the AL where he’ll face much different pitching, his home park is now one of the worst for hitters, and his protection goes from Garrett Atkins and Brad Hawpe to Giambi and Jack Cust.  Quite the difference.  He also made tremendous strides with his stolen base totals which also should decrease dramatically.  The A’s are not a running team and there’s too much potential for the strike ‘em out/throw ‘em out double play.  If you’ve got him in a keeper league, now might be a good time to shop him around.  On the other hand, Holliday is in a contract year, and will certainly want to pad his totals for a potentially enormous payout next winter.  Motivation certainly won’t be an issue.  Not to mention, with the Moneyball ways of Billy Beane, there’s a chance that Holliday only stays in Oaktown for half the season.  If the A’s aren’t in contention, then look for him to be dealt ASAP.  Beane will want to make sure he scores the mother-lode and there will be numerous contenders vying for his [Holliday's] services.  Now as for Giambi, it could be a little different.  He’s home now, and that definitely makes him happy.  He should be a lot more at ease coming back to the A’s and with Holliday hitting in front of him, he should get some beautiful pitches to hit. He’s obviously not the Giambi of old, but a 30+ HR season is definitely not out of the question.  In an era where power is at a premium, he’s going to be a late round fantasy asset to someone’s team.  If it doesn’t cost too much, why not let it be you?  One last note here…keep an eye on Cust.  His strikeouts are, and probably still will be, a nightmare, but with both Holliday and Giambi in front of him, pitchers will probably be eager to throw to him.  That could definitely work out in his favor and you could see an increase in his power numbers.  Sort of a poor man’s Adam Dunn, if you will. 

The Mets are hoping he's NOT the next Bobby Thigpen.

2.  New York Mets sign RP Francisco Rodriguez — Here’s another move that could come back to haunt the fantasy owners of K-Rod.  The move from the AL to the NL doesn’t have the same impact for a closer as it does for a starter, so I’m not even going to touch on that when there are so many other negatives I can talk about.  First off, let’s talk about what leaving the Angels is going to do to the club in Los Angeles/Anaheim.  For the last 4 years it’s been a no-brainer for manager Mike Scioscia.  Put the ball in K-Rod’s hands with a 9th inning lead, and say goodnight, Gracie.  Now, those 40+ saves in the past 4 years with last season’s record breaking 62 are gone.  Replacing him are Brian Fuentes, who’s been removed from the closer’s role multiple times in Colorado, unproven Jose Arredondo, and career set-up guy Scot Shields.  It just won’t be the same confidence level and could cause Scioscia to leave his starters in a little longer than they should be allowed to pitch.  You could see more innings, higher pitch counts, and the possibility of more injuries to the starting rotation.  Not to mention the possibility of fewer wins.  A guy like John Lackey might not be too drastically affected, but guys like Ervin Santana, Jered Weaver and Jon Garland…guys who rely on the bullpen to mop up their messes…could see a much more adverse effect.  Now as for K-Rod  himself,  I still see him putting up decent numbers.  However, I think the injury risk is a lot greater.  He’s thrown an awful lot of innings in his time and has already experienced problems with his elbow.  Then there’s also the probability of a letdown after such a dream season.  Of course you can’t expect another save total like last season; you’d be crazy to think so.  But here’s an nice little fact that Keith pointed out to me.  After his record setting year in 1990, Bobby Thigpen only pitched for 4 more seasons.  And if you combine his save numbers for those 4 seasons, the number still comes up shy of his record setting year.  Hmmmm.  Food for thought.

Soon to be powering the Yankees and a fantasy team near you

1.  New York Yankees sign 1B Mark Teixeira, SP C.C. Sabathia and SP A.J. Burnett — Ah, the big one.  You knew it was coming.  My Yankees were “making it rain” at Club MLB and should be rewarded nicely for their efforts…we hope.  The Bombers scored the 3 biggest fish on the open market, and should reap some significant benefits having done so.  We’ll take it one at a time, because contrary to your thinking that I’m just going to sit here and fluff our newest acquisitions, I’m a fantasy realist, and let’s face it…business is business and there’s no room for me to be a fan here.  We’ll start with Teixeira.  This is the pick-up that I love the most.  No question.  Coming into his 7th major league season, the switch-hitting first baseman is going to fall in love with that short porch in right.  Yup, that’s right.  The dimensions for the new Yankee Stadium are the same as the old Yankee Stadium.  He’ll also probably hit third in the order behind Johnny Damon and Derek Jeter and in front of Alex Rodriguez.  The fantasy impact there alone, is going to be huge.  Jeter and Damon should post even better runs totals, Teixeira should be an RBI machine, and A-Rod is….well, A-Rod.  The batting average and OBP may not be as good as Bobby Abreu’s, but the power will be respected.  I expect increased offensive totals all around.  Now for most…and those that have concerned about the Yanks’ pitching the last few years, the big pick-up was Sabathia.  C.C. was just insane last year with his 17 wins, his 251 K’s, a 2.70 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP.  He finished in the top 3 for NL Cy Young and was almost the first player in history to win the award in back to back years but in different leagues.  But here’s the but…while those stats look fantastic, it should be noted that the big guy went 9-2 in the second half and chopped a full 2 points off his ERA…in the NL.  The classic league switch success.  Sabathia struggled mightily at the beginning of last year and was 3-7 with a 5.70 ERA by the end of May.  He started to turn it around in June, and by mid-July, was off to the NL for a numbers boost.  Something to think about huh?  There’s also the fact that he threw 253 innings last season and 241 the year before that.  Between 2001 and 2006, he only topped 200 innings in a season once.  That arm is one tired noodle.  Now I’m not saying that he’s going to have problems…I still think he should pitch well for the Bombers.  But this could also be a disaster.  I’m on the fence right now, so if you’re asking me, while I would definitely draft him (or protect him in a keeper league), I’d be shopping him around immediately and get as much for him as possible. 

Watch that arm, big boy!

As for the last of the free agent trifecta, we have Burnett.  Here’s another injury risk in the making.  Not because of how much he’s thrown of late, but because he’s got the history.  Tommy John surgery back in 2003 probably helped strengthen the arm, but the elbow issues are certainly a red flag.  He threw 221 innings last season, a career high, and has only cleared 200 innings three times in his 10 years in the majors.  It should probably help that he’ll be slated as the third starter behind Sabathia and Chien-Ming Wang, but it’s definitely wise to err on the side of caution.  He’ll have tremendous run support, so the probability of an increase in wins is likely, and So long as he doesn’t land on the DL, he should be a solid 3rd or 4th starter for your fantasy squad.  Just be sure you’ve got solid back-ups on your reserve roster.  That’s the problem with pitchers…you can speculate all you want, but you just never know.