Preparing For My Fantasy Football Drafts

If you’re like me, then this can be a very difficult time of the year.  I’ll be headed to the playoffs in 2 baseball head to head leagues and the race is super crazy tight in my rotisserie league.  But football is coming….hell, football is here.  Training camps have been open for weeks, preseason games have already started and fantasy football drafts are coming up fast throughout the next 2 weeks.  Hopefully you’ve been checking here and found our Fantasy Football Cheatsheets at the top of the page.  We’ve been tinkering with our rankings for the past couple of weeks to try and keep you up to date with player movement and position battles.  However, as is the case with baseball, rankings aren’t enough.  You always need a little more.  A little more insight, a little more speculation, if you will.  So as I look around the NFL today, here’s some of the things I’m looking at while I prepare for my drafts…

Still #1 -- in any league

First of all, let’s re-iterate the fact that strong RBs are your most important tools for a successful season.  If your pick is in the first four, it’s a no-brainer — LaDanian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, Joseph Addai, and Brian Westbrook.  If you have a top 4 pick and you don’t use it on one of these guys, you better have a real good reason and/or a very strange scoring system.  After that top 4, then there’s usually a little leeway that allows you to pick guys like Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, but if you’re asking me (and by reading this, I consider that “asking me”) then I’m still looking at the backs.  There are too many teams in the NFL that are going to this committee running back system, and while they’ll find success in the NFL, there’ll be quite a number of fantasy squads that suffer.  I’d rather skip Brady and Manning, and look for guys like Frank Gore, Steven Jackson (if he ever stops with this ridiculous hold-out), Clinton Portis, Marion Barber, Marshawn Lynch (hit and runs aside), and even Larry Johnson with his suspect…and I do mean suspect…offensive line.  You need an elite back.  That’s the bottom line.  If you don’t have atleast one, you better bulk up elsewhere and try and trade for one.

OK…so with that out of the way, let’s get back to the NFL and see what”s influncing my decisions…

Same old Jets? I think not

Let’s start with my Achilles heel — the New York Jets.  I’m a big fan, for better or worse.  Always have been, always will be.  And when it comes to fantasy, I can be a bit of a homer, as you’ll always find atleast the kicker or the defense on my team.  This year, the Jets, who haven’t had a fantasy impact player in years, have a little more going on.  Brett Favre’s presence is only going to help the surrounding cast.  My pick off the Jets this season, I think, is going to be WR Jerricho Cotchery.  I’m willing to bet he puts up better numbers than #1 receiver Laverneus Coles.

Sticking with the Big Apple, let’s look to last season’s surprising Super Bowl champions.  I really like the fact that the whole offnsive line has stayed intact.  Eli Manning should feel much more comfortable and should post solid numbers.  But I think the big breakout could be found in Brandon Jacobs.  Sure he’s got two guys stealing carries from him (Ahmad Bradshaw and Derrick Ward), but he’s a big bruising back and he’s in his contract year.  Injury worries aside, I think a monster year is in the cards.

I’ve never been a big Donovan McNabb fan and his best years were brought to him by Terrell Owens.  Now that Kevin Curtis is down, I’m downgrading McNabb even more.  Sure, he’s got Reggie Brown, but I think his best numbers will come on the short dump passes to Westbrook.  Use caution.

Ready to break out?

While I love what Atlanta has been doing in the post-Vick era, you still have to worry about relying on them for your fantasy squads.  It’s hard not to like Michael Turner, but how many times have we seen a great back-up fizzle somewhere else.  He’ll really need Matt Ryan to show something in order to alleviate some of the pressure he’ll be under.

And speaking of RB pressure, I’m just going to say this.  While I love Adrian Peterson and consider him a top 4 pick this year, you have to be concerned about the rest of the offense.  QB Tavaris Jackson is banged up and the only real decent wideout is Bernard Berrian.  Peterson won’t be surprising anyone this year, so look for a lot of 8 men in the box against him.

Tight ends are always a tough one.  Usually if you didn’t have Tony Gonzalez or Antonio Gates, the position became barely an afterthought.  There are two that I really like for this year.  Alge Crumpler moves from the Falcons to the Titans and Vince Young has never been happier.  He’s always used his tight ends well and now finally has one with a decent set of hands.  He’s going to be a great red zone target.  I also love, believe it or not, what the Raiders are doing.  I think Zach Miller is going to be a solid and very reliable target for Jamarcus Russell this year.  He was a second round pick for the Raiders, has great hands, runs routes well, and has shown that he can improvise and get open when Russell is scrambling.  Atleast one of these guys will find their way onto all of my rosters this year, and they’ll both come cheaper than, say, Kellen Winslow.

And speaking of the Browns, prior to Derek Anderson’s concussion inthe pre-season, I had this team pegged as a fantasy goldmine.  We’ll have to see how he rebounds from the injury, but between him, Winslow, Braylon Edwards and Jamal Lewis, there will be plenty of fantasy points to go around.

Will the change of scenery help?

If Chad Pennington finds success in Miami, then I see Ted Ginn, Jr. as a great sleeper for this year.  Unfortunately, the O-line is still suspect, Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are hardly reliable, and with his propensity for injury, Chad could make way for backup Chad Henne sometime around week 6.

The QB situation in San Francisco has just been a disaster.  It looks like J.T. O’Sullivan has the inside track over Alex Smith and Shaun Hill, but who knows how long that will last.  The only sure thing for the Niners is that Mike Martz is going to have to lean heavily on Frank Gore.  Think early Marshall Faulk in the Greatest Show on Turf.

I think the Packers, in the post-Favre era will do just fine and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Aaron Rogers have a monster year.  He’s got a great rapport going with Donald Driver and Greg Jennings and Ryan Grant should be a strong backfield presence all year long.  Rogers handled the offseason like a champ and if his poise under media fire can translate to game time action, then he could be a QB I might consider drafting.

There’s plenty more to cover, and I’ll be back with it over the weekend.  This is just to get you started right now.  But while you continue to investigate and prepare for your drafts, here’s a few more of my off-the-cuff thoughts…

Love:  Arizona WRs  Hate: Arizona QB situation

Love: that Steve Smith is suspended  Hate:  Jake Delhomme

Love:  Lamont Jordan infecting New England  Hate: the Patriots

Love:  Marshawn Lynch and Lee Evans  Hate:  everyone else on Buffalo

Love:  Matt Schaub  Hate:  that Andre Johnson can’t stay healthy

Love:  the name change to Ocho Cinco  Hate: that the Bengals are becoming a fantasy disaster

Love:  Santonio Holmes  Hate:  the Parker/Mendenhall committee

Love:  the high-flying Saints  Hate:  having to see more Katrina footage

Love:  Terrell Owens  Hate:  the rest of Keith’s Cowboys

Love:  that fantasy football is underway  Hate:  that the first regular season game is still 2 weeks away