2008 Fantasy FAQ — Part 2

Oooh! Oooh! Oooh! I've got a question!

Here we are, less than a week into the second half of the season and we’re still being inundated with questions about the booms and busts of this year’s fantasy season.  Should I keep this guy?  Will he continue to play like this?  What can I expect in a deal for this guy?  The list goes on and on.  But who can blame you?  This is a crucial time for the fantasy contenders, what with only a little more than two months left in the season.  Rosters need to be tweaked, trades need to be made, and then for those in the keeper leagues, preparations still need to be made for 2009.  So I’ve sifted through the emails and had plenty of conversations (especially at work where I think my job is riding on the success of my boss’ fantasy team) and have compiled the top 10 most frequently asked questions regarding those in this year’s fantasy spotlight.  Let’s take a look…

The new Dynamic Duo?

1.  Will Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick continue to soar in the Cardinals outfield?  If you asked me this at the beginning of the season, I probably would have said “no way!”  I think I’m singing a different tune these days.  Both started off the season incredibly hot and each one took a little bit of a swoon during the first half, Ankiel in May and Ludwick in June.  But in July, they’re both crushing the ball again, each hitting well over .300 and have combined for 13 HR and 30 RBI in July thus far.  The break hasn’t sapped either of their momentums and they should remain solid plays for the remainder of the season.  Colby Rasmus might still get a September call-up, but if the Cards are in contention, these boys should be inthe lineup every day.

2.  Will Jacoby Ellsbury steal 60 bases this year?  Not likely.  And that’s not just because I can’t stand all things Red Sox, it’s what the writing on the wall says.  Since a torrid May, Ellsbury has dramatically tapered off and is killing his fantasy owners with his .239 July average, a measley .282 OBP and only one swipe.  Coming out of the break, he’s only got 2 hits in 17 AB (.118 BA) and now the buzz is that he’s out of the leadoff spot once David Ortiz comes back at the end of this week.  Both Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis are considered better options at the top of the lineup and Ellsbury won’t have nearly the stolen base opportunities hitting out of the 8 hole. 

3.  Nate McLouth, keeper or not?  Arguably one of the biggest breakouts of 2008, the debate over

Would you keep me?

whether McLouth could be considered a keeper for next year has been highly contested in numerous leagues.  Currently, he’s on pace to set career highs in every offensive category, including nose hair.  But let’s keep this in perspective, shall we?  Of course your numbers are going to be higher if you have 200 more ABs than you did in any previous season.  It’s his first full time gig.  Hell, he’s already got 60 more ABs right now than he did in all of last season.  While his start to the season was incredible, he’s definitely fallen off.  He hit .214 for the month of June, and while he got off to a hot start again in July, last night was his first multi-hit game since the 9th.  I need to see him after a full year to really have that kind of faith.  The sample size for keeper status, to me, is just too small.  He’s great for this year, but I wouldn’t take that shot on him for next.

4.  Will Milton Bradley and J.D. Drew stay healthy all season?  We’ve all heard it a million times.  Solid player, great stats, but he’s just too injury prone.  It’s one of the reasons I didn’t take Ken Griffey in a deal offered to me at my trade deadline.  Well, here are two of the biggest injury risks in baseball and they’ve got their owners scratching their heads.  So here’s my take:  Bradley, injury-free;  Drew, not so much.  For whatever it is, I don’t see Bradley going down in his usual vaginal way.  I can’t explain it really.  Maybe it’s because he’s not one of the ‘dirtbags’ we’ve grown to love in baseball.  Maybe I don’t see him doing something so stupid like jumping after an umpire only to get thrown down by his coach.  I dont know.  I just see him making through the rest of the year without a major DL stint.  I don’t necessarily think he’ll keep up everything he’s doing at the plate right now, but that’s a different story.  Drew, on the other hand, is a ‘dirtbag’ and his all out style will, once again, put the kibosh on what has been looking like a stellar year.  I don’t see it being a devastating year-ending injury, but a hammy here and a knee tweak there seem very likely. 

5.  Will Edinson Volquez’ arm fall off?  This has actually been a little debate between Keith and I since

Et tu, Edinson? Et tu?

 the beginning of the season.  Will Dusty Baker ruin yet another young arm?  In this era of coddling starters and pitch counts, I liked seeing the kid go out there and go as long as he could.  Old school baseball.  Keith, on the other hand, citing work loads and minor league prep was against it and was warning you off of Volquez back in mid-May.  Well he had more than a solid first half and in 21 starts this season the kid’s thrown 100 or more pitches in 14 of those games.  He’s sitting just under 2100 pitches in total for the year.  Seems like a lot, huh?  Well, apparently it is.  We’ve watched his ERA climb each month and has thrown 3 non-quality starts in his last 5 outings.  He also got hit hard in the All Star Game and did not come back in his first second half start very strong.  Perhaps the Reds should slow him down a bit.  I don’t like it, but I’ll give a point to Keith.   

6.  Will Victor Martinez remember how to hit whenever he gets back?  Pfffft!  If he comes back, that is.  There’s really no telling what’s going to happen with 2008’s biggest fantasy bust.  Last I heard, he was going to be picking up a bat for the first time by the end of the week to take some practice swings, but was still atleast 3 weeks to a month away from returning, barring any setbacks.  So the real question is:  Does anyone really care if V-Mart remembers how to hit?  Sure you can blame the early lack of power on the elbow, but do you think fresh off from surgery it’s all going to come back?  Probably not.  If you’re holding out hope for an offensive surge from your catcher in late August/early September then that’s some serious wishful thinking.  And as Keith always says, “You can shit in one hand and wish in the other and see which one fills up first.”

As in "I wonder what happened to the One-ders?"

7.  Was Troy Tulowitzki a one year wonder?  How many times have we seen an explosive year from a middle infielder only to see him fizzle out in the next season?  We have all these high hopes, we even protect him in some leagues, only to watch it bite us in the ass the following season.  Tulo’s shaping up to be the next Angel Berroa, if you ask me.  He had a phenomenal rookie campaign only to show up this season with a dogshit April, and injury in May, a crappy late June return and another injury (driven by frustration and stupidity) in July.  How many owners have wasted their fantasy season on this chump?  But wait!!!  He went 5 for 5 in his first game back!  He’s gonna be a stud again, right?  Just hold on there, son.  Let’s see him string together a few games before we start getting the Coopestown plaque ready.  He needs a phenomenal second half to prove his worth, and even then, I don’t see him being as valuable as some of his owners hope.

8.  Is Carlos Quentin for real?  I love this kid.  Can’t say it enough, actually.  Is he for real?  I say “hell yeah!”  I love his approach at the plate, I love his solid defensive play, and most of all, I love his numbers right now.  Of course I would love it more if he were hitting closer to .300, but I’ll take any outfielder hitting .280 so long as there are 24 HR attached to it.  He started off the year nice and hot, maintained through May and then slowed down a bit at the end of the second half.  To me, that’s to be expected of a guy who’s pretty much a rookie and wasn’t even supposed to have a starting job this year.  What can we expect for the second half?  Well, he’s at it again as he’s come back from the break white hot with a .357 average and a pair of dingers to boot.  He’ll finish out the year with 35+ HR and 100+ RBI and should be a welcomed addition to your protects list for next season.

9.  Cliff Lee, Cy Young or 2nd half disaster?  Maybe I’m a little biased because I own him, but to me, Lee is on his way to another dream season, reminiscent of his 18-5 2005 extravaganza.  Do I think his ratios will stay as delicious as they are right now?  Maybe not.  But I don’t see him exploding and having a second half meltdown.  The 29 year old lefty is a seasoned vet and should continue to post solid numbers the rest of the way.  I think he’s learned a lot from last year.  I definitely like his second half prospects.  His first start back from the break was a complete game win where he allowed 2 runs on 11 scattered hits and no walks.  His fastball wasn’t as sharp as it usually is, but his curve is still pretty nasty.  I say the wins and the K’s will keep coming, but he’ll probably finish up the year with an ERA about a point higher than it is righ now.  But even if the ERA does climb, he’s still going to be a top finalist for the Cy Young this year.  Enjoy it.

10.  Is Josh Hamilton the new Roy Hobbs?  Hard to say, but the similarities are pretty scary; right down

"Will you Roy? Will you be the best that ever played the game?"

 to the fact that Josh loves to talk about his arm ink as much as Roy liked talking about that scar on his side.  But the question remains…can the dream season stay alive?  Fantasy owners definitely got worried after a monstrous Home Run Derby performance foreshadowed a botched swing and awful second half.  Could he follow the Bobby Abreu path?  Back to back 0 for 4’s after the break continued to fuel concerns, but manager Ron Washington nipped it in the bud by sitting his slugger for a night.  That move paid dividends as 2008’s feel good story popped a gargantuan 3 run shot to set himself straight.  Barring another second half hamstring problem, we could be watching this year’s MVP, regardless of how piss poor the Rangers finish.