Play ‘em or Pine ‘em

Well, all right.  The All Star Break is over and we’re past the short week.  Time to get back to business.  We’ve got a big second half here and it’s make or break time for many of you contenders.  Now while Keith and I have watched our trade deadlines come and gone, many of you still have a few weeks to go before your rosters get locked for the stretch run.  You have to make the most of it.  It’s live or die.  Sink or swim.  Finish like a champion or go down like a chump.  The next 2 months are going to be big so you need to stay on your toes and keep a very watchful eye on your waiver wire with all of the late season call-ups expected soon.  The MLB trade deadline…well, the official one….is also rapidly approaching and as we’ve seen, there’s plenty of movement that has immense fantasy impact.  But let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves.  Baby steps towards the championship.  I’ve got the ”play ‘ems” and Keith’s got the boys to bench.  Here’s how the upcoming fantasy week looks to us.

“O.K. boys.  Show us what you got!”

Play ‘em – Batters

Conor Jackson, 1B/OF ARI –  I have to stick with the advice from one of the greats in the game when a timeless Crash Davis said, “You don’t %#@! with a streak.”  Well, Jackson here is riding a 7 gamer right now and this week looks like a good time to extend.  Since he’s been back from the break, Jackson is hitting .462 with a .533 OBP in 13 at bats and he’s got one jack in there too.  This week he’s got the Cubbies coming to Chase Field (where he’s hitting .319 on the season), and he looks pretty good against both Ted Lilly and the always hittable Jason Marquis.  He’s never faced Rich Harden before, but that doesn’t worry me since he’s still hitting .286 vs righties.  After that, he travels to San Francisco where he’s already hitting .364 this year with a pair of home runs and 6 RBI.  He’s got tremendous numbers against both Jonathan Sanchez (.778, 1 HR)  and Tim Lincecum (.429) and he finishes the week with everyone’s favorite punching bag, Barry Zito.

  Jackson’s still on pace to have a career year, so ride the wave for as long as you can. 

Nick Swisher, OF CHW –  Another streaky hitter, so grab your board and ride this wave too.  Since returning from the break, Swish is hitting .333 with hits in 3 of his 4 games including last night’s monster home run.  He’s got some weak Texas pitching pitching coming into town, including Kevin Millwood, whom he’s hitting .419 against with 3 jacks.  After that, he travels to Detroit for a big series against the division rival Tigers.  Average wise, Swisher doesn’t appear like the best bet in the second half of the week, but he’s got good solid power numbers against starters Justin Verlander and old timer, Kenny Rogers. 

Luke Scott, OF  BAL –  Anyone sensing a theme here?  Keep that board nice and waxed up.  Another streaky hitter whose wave we all should be riding.  Scott’s been hitting a monster .539 since returning from the break, and has 3 HR and 6 RBI in his last 3 games.  If you look at his game log, you can see his hits come in bunched, so you might as well let him get this out for your team this week.  He’s got 4 games agaisnt Toronto to start and he’s got tremendous success against their starters, including a lifetime average of .667 with 2 home runs against ace Roy Halladay.  After that, the homestand continues with the Angels coming into town.  Scott hits Jon Garland pretty well (.333) and if you read further down, you won’t even be remotely concerned about his matchup with Ervin Santana.

Play ‘em – Pitchers

Joe Blanton, SP  PHI –  Let me start here with a note that Keith and I were nowhere near agreement on this one.  As a matter of fact, he even called me up to try and talk me out of this one.  But I’m still here to tell you…Joe Blanton is going to turn the NL East upside down as he becomes one of the Phillies smartest acquisitions.  First of all, they got him for a song which should help motivate him to prove Billy Beane wrong.  Second of all, does anyone out there know that in the last 4 years Blanton owns the 4th best ERA (1.57) in interleague play?  He’s an innings-eater who tears up the NL and with the highly potent offense behind him now, the run support shouldn’t be a problem either.  He’s got two divisional starts this week against the Mets and the Braves and while he’s never faced Atlanta before, he’s got 1 win and 15 scoreless innings under his belt against New York.  I smell a resurgence, so hop on the bandwagon while there’s still room. 

Tim Hudson, SP  ATL –  Another former Oak-town resident making good in the NL, Hudson has a real nice start coming this week.  Since he’s now become one of those guys you need to play the match-ups with, you have to take advantage of the one start he has this week against the Marlins.  While his last start in Doplphin Stadium wasn’t so hot, look for Hudson to rebound against the team he is a lifetime 6-2 against with a 2.84 career ERA.  And actually, before that last start, Hudson was 6-0 against them in 10 starts over the last 3 years with a killer 1.83 ERA.  Get him in there this week.  You shouldn’t be disappointed. 

Joel Pineiro, SP  STL –  I don’t really know what it is that makes me stand by this guy.  But lo and behold,

 here I am promoting him again this season as a solid “Play ‘em” candidate. He’s got two starts this week against two strong opponenets, but they’re opponents he’s had good success against.  He’s got the free-swinging Brewers to start the week at home where he definitely pitches better and has already bested the Brew Crew this year with a solid 6 1/3 innings of 4 hit ball with 4 Ks.  After that, he gets the Mets who should still be in their tailspin after a series against the Phillies.  Take a shot on him this week.  He won’t throw out eye-popping numbers, but he should give you some solid 2 start stats for the week. 

 

“Hit the road, Jack.  And don’t you come back no more.”

Pine ‘em -  Batters

Alex Gordon, 3B/OF  KC–  Gordon’s lefty/righty splits are downright ugly.  He just cannot hit lefties, of which faces two this week.  Let’s instead focus on his competition.  He faces Detroit and Tampa this week.  In five games this year against Detroit he has a combined BA of .200.  In three games this year against Tampa he has no hits.  That’s right, 0-11.  It isn’t like this guy was having a great breakout year that his owners were hoping for.  The only pitcher he faces this week that he has a BA over .250 against is Matt Garza.  As we know, Garza could easily be lights out on any given day.  Sit Gordon for another comparable (or slightly below comparable) option. 

Bill Hall, 3B/OF  MIL–  What a difference a couple of months can make.  Predictably, Russell Branyan’s production has rapidly dropped off giving Hall another chance to receive regular at-bats.  He will still sit against many right-handers, but his average against lefties will keep him in the lineup regularly. 

     His July BA so far is over .350 and he is actually the (marginally) superior option long term.  All that being said, this week could be an exception.  The Brewers only face one lefty all week.  Since he is hitting .166 against righties so far this season, it is a safe bet to start another option.

Rick Ankiel, OF  StL–  This is going to come as a shock to most of you, but I’m going to recommend benching him.  Don’t bring in Franklin Gutierrez in his place, but if you have someone just a step lower that has a good week matchup-wise, throw him in.  Ankiel gets to face CC Sabathia, Johan Santana and Ben Sheets this week.  Not an easy task, butt gets even worse.  He is hitless against three of the other hurlers he will see.  The only pitcher that doesn’t cover is Pedro Martinez.  He has only 1 RBI in 30 ABs against the pre-Sabathia Brewers. 

Pine ‘em – Pitchers

Ervin Santana, SP  LAA  –  The numbers say that Santana may have a rough week.  Against the Indians he holds an 0-5 record with an ERA of 6.59.  His second start comes against the Orioles in Baltimore.  His numbers against them are a little better at 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA. 

     Before July, Santana’s ERA had gotten higher in each month.  Though July has started with more promise, it may be time to give him a break from your active lineup.  Despite his marginally better ERA in July, so far he has given up more hits than innings pitched for the first month this year.

Jon Lester, SP  BOS –  I know he has been good this year.  I know he threw a no-hitter.  I also know that it is time to get him out of your lineup before he undoes the good he has done.  Two of his last three starts have been poor, letting up 5 or more runs.  In his last two starts his control has gotten slightly worse as well.  He made it through June without walking more than one batter in any start. 

     Lester’s first start is an away game in Seattle.  We all know that the Mariners are not that great this season, but Lester’s home ERA is a full run lower than his ERA on the road.  He has an record of 0-0 with an 8.10 ERA against Seattle as it is, so that’s strike two.  Lester also has let up more hits than innings while pitching away from home (it is also worth noting that if you throw out his no-hitter, he has allowed more hits than innings at home as well).  Strike three.  His second start comes at home, but is against the Yankees.  Scary.  ‘Nuf said.

Kyle Loshe, SP  STL–  His first start is against the Brewers, who are hitting .283 against him this season.  He has started twice against them and has a 4.91 ERA with 13 hits in 11 innings pitched.  More than that, the Brewers are playing better and better.  Fielder is heating up, and Braun is just an animal.  Loshe’s second start comes against the Mets in Shea stadium. 

     Did I mention that Loshe’s ERA is a 1.5 runs higher away than at home?  He has given up 14 fewer hits than innings at home, but 15 morehits than innings on the road.  The Mets are the hottest team in baseball right now, so watch out.