So I’ve returned from across the pond, and just in time as baseball “officially” got under way early this morning as the Red Sox handed the A’s a little extra inning loss.  Lots to see there also as Manny got his contract year off to a nice start, Brandon Moss puts J.D.Drew on the hot seat, and our first closer watch as Street gets the first blown save of the year.

Special thanks to Keith for keeping the fire burning this spring.

I’ll be back on a regualr basis again, so stay tuned for more… 

But for starters, I threw in my two cents for predictions which can be found on Keith’s Psychic Services article.

See you all in the money this year!!!

Top Tier  “ Die Hard”  -  Nathan, F.Rodriguez, Pappelbon, Putz.  These guys are so good, that they could come through and save the day even if they had to pitch bare-footed on broken glass with German thieves shooting at them.  They have ice in their veins and are the best firemen out there.  All four should have excellent ratios, above average strikeouts, and plenty of save opportunities.  They all have great job security and barring injury or a Mark Wholers-esque loss of ability will give their owners great numbers for the upcoming season.  If you are lucky enough to grab one, stick him on your roster and say, Welcome to the party, Pal!  (I bet you thought I was gonna say Yippie-Ki-Yea, didn’t you?) (more…)

Well we are halfway home.  Hitters are done (except for DH which I’ll do after pitchers).  While most GMs are eager to spend money on the stud hitters of the day, only the true top starters command even close to the same prices.  Less reliable, less consistent, more injury-prone, and a shorter shelf-life keep their values lower than stud hitters.  Nonetheless, pitchers will account for half the available points in your league, so you had better get to know them.

Top Tier  “Smokin’ Aces”  -  Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb.  Starters are notorious for going from Beyonce to bigfoot in no time flat.  The starting pitching flower usually wilts quickly, so have the number for the florist handy around draft time.  These three are the most likely exception to that rule.  With Santana (aka Lazlo Soot) you pretty much know what you are getting.  He is the best in the game, he moved to the weaker hitting league, and is playing for a better team.  All that together adds up to a Cy Young award, a potential MVP, and a good shot at a World Series ring.  Peavy is the primary competition for Santana in winning that Cy Young.  (more…)

Flush with talent, the outfield is an easy place to find a good player.  Even late in the auction or draft, there is plenty of upside for the educated GM.  Let’s just jump right in.

Top Tier “Superfly” -  Crawford, Holliday, Ichiro, Soriano, Beltran, Sizemore.  There has been quite a bit of juggling in the top tier of outfielders over the last couple of years.  Clearly, if you have followed baseball at all you know all about these guys and what they can offer your team.  With 4 and 5 tool talent, they are all the cream of the crop and worth every penny of the price they command.  Notable is the absence of two players that have been in this top tier for years.  That would be Vlad and Manny Ramirez.  They are both still solid players, but we must recognize the fact that their production has seriously slipped from their former level of excellence.  Both have had nagging injuries, a slipping of power, and in Vlad’s case, a complete loss of speed on the basepaths (remember when he was a 40-40 threat?).  Let your opponents be the ones that spend the top dollar on those two guys, but if you can get them at 2nd tier prices, don’t be afraid to jump all over them (from the top turnbuckle). (more…)

This position is as thin as it is physically demanding.  They get beat on every day, will ruin their knees, and are the primary reason that the cup was invented.  Each and every one of them is one foul tip away from a broken finger.  They are one extra long follow-through away from a concussion.  They are one collision away from a broken wrist, igniting retaliation in the form of a hit batsman and a hi-spike slide.  This of course inevitably results in a benches clearing brawl between two divisional teams that will play each other twice more in the spring and 19 times over the course of the season.  But I digress.  (more…)

In a bunch of the magazines I have invested my money, time, and brainpower to look over, I have seen a couple of nice features.  One of which picked one player from each league that would rise to the top in certain categories such as breakout, fluke, comeback etc..   So what better way to entertain myself (and you) than by completely ripping-off their idea paying homage to their concept.  Perhaps I’ll even add a couple of categories which they overlooked.  I gaze into my crystal ball….. and THIS is what I see……….. (more…)

It’s a deep player pool with upside at third base.  Visions of stud players at both corners dance around in the minds of every GM.  This is by far the easiest place in the infield to lay back and wait on drafting players.  But beware!  If you wait, and pick poorly, you could find yourself at a big disadvantage. 

Top Tier “Godfathers” -  A.Rodriguez, Wright, Cabrera, Braun.  Three of the most valuable commodities on the market, and one on it’s way up with a bullet.  A-Rod was on a mission last season and showed us all that he is still THE premier fantasy guy out there.  (more…)

On the closer frontier it looks like B.J. Ryan is on track to open the season on the active roster.  He is a little risky, and sure to be rusty, but over the course of the year he should be a solid investment.  C.J. Wilson is hoping to return to game action over the weekend so he doesn’t jepordize his closer role any further.  Todd Jones is old, showing it, and could lose his role very shortly.  He is having a “lack of arm strength”.  Yeah, that happens when you get old.  (more…)

Traditionally, this is the 2nd thinnest position in fantasy baseball behind catcher.  While the former model of slick-glove-no-bat players still exists, there is by far more fantasy upside here than in years passed.  Due to this position scarcity, the obvious inflation of value occurs with players that are good not only when compared to other shortstops, but against the better hitting positions as well.  If you want a top option here, get your wallet out ’cause it’s gonna cost ya’.

Top Tier “Drunken Brawl” -  Hanely Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes.  Do not, I repeat, DO NOT expect to get any of these guys if you have a late pick in the first round of a snake draft.  (more…)

Every fantasy geek has had the following happen to them.  As a dilligent GM, your research requires you study all player stats from the previous year.  In that research you find a player that put up great stats the previous season, and matches your team’s needs perfectly.  So of course you draft that player believing him to be a valuable asset.  You pay your money, pick him up, and what is your reward for your faith in him?  A seemingly ending string of blows about your face and head as he puts up garbage stats week after week all season long.  Having learned your lesson, the following year you avoid that player as if he would give you syphilis.  So what does that player then do?  Well, that dirty rat bastard puts up the same great stats which caught your eye in the first place, but he does it for your competition.  Frustrating, right?  It sucks when you draft players in their “off” years.  But then I started thinking…..perhaps, just maybe, there was a pattern!  Something that would help me predict the ebbs and flows of a player’s career.  From this was born the  “Every-Other Year Theory”. 

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