Moving sucks.  Doesn’t it?  Who wants to pack up all their stuff (or pay someone to do it) and have to lug it across town/state/country just to unpack it again?  Of course, it rains, and of course, your friends don’t show up to help.  Ugh. 

In MLB though, moving teams or leagues can really affect the value a player has or is perceived to have.  Its definitely a factor that is worth noting.

Miguel Cabrera (3B)Traded from the (NL) Marlins to (AL) Tigers.  Could it be possible that his numbers could get any better?  Why yes!  Imagine what this young (he’s still only 25), power hitting, great batting average, RBI machine is going to do if he actually has other hitters around him.  Apologies to the Marlins, but Cabrera owners should be doing back-flips about this trade.  If Miggy put up great numbers around the likes of the Marlins, wait until he’s in a lineup with Magglio, Pudge, Guillen, and Renteria.  Not to mention Sheffield hitting instead of a pitcher every nine batters.  This is the year he becomes a true superstar.  102-.325-42-125-2. 

Miguel Tejada (SS) Traded from the (AL) Orioles to the (NL) Astros.  DISCLAIMER:  All of the following is to be disregarded if Tejada is not allowed back into the country!  He will be, but I find that quite amusing.  This is an interesting case to look at.  The ballpark is a little better for power, but last year’s Orioles outscored the Astros by over 20 runs.  Add to that the more than likely possibility that Tejada’s decline could continue.  I could see the change of scenery helping, but I would expect the numbers to pretty much even out.  92-.302-22-94-1.

Johan Santana (SP)  Traded from the (AL) Twins to the (NL) Mets.  Wow.  Still angry about this.  He’s awesome.  His team is easily my favorite to win the NL and he gets to face a pitcher every 9 batters.  People are talking about injury concerns but until he gives you some real reason to worry continue worshiping at the Santana Shrine of Fantasy Studliness.  20W-.3.02-1.02-265K.

Scott Rolen (3B)  Traded from the (NL) Cardinals to the (AL) Blue Jays.  This trade was about one thing.  Getting Tony LaRussa and Scott Rolen the hell out of each other’s lives.  I expect the change of scenery to help Rolen a great deal.  He may not stay healthy because of that artifical turf, but if he does he will be so happy that it will show in his play.  88-.290-21-90-4.

Dontrelle Willis (SP)  FA from (NL) Florida to (AL) Tigers.  I’ve never really been a fan since he’s always been pretty inconsistent, but this move is only going to hurt him.  He was already starting to fall apart but now he is in the hitting dominant AL.  The topper is that even though Detroit is no hitter’s park, it’s still much more so than his former home.  Bad news comin’.  10W, 4.55, 1.37, 150K.

You wouldn’t know it because it won’t turn up in any baseball stat report, but rebounding is huge in fantasy baseball.  If your team can average 3-4 rebounds then you are probably going to be in good shape.  No, we aren’t talking about crashing the boards, we are talking about players rebounding after a poor season.  If you can tell the difference between which player’s down year was just an aberration from the signs of a player’s decline, you are well ahead of the game.  Here ya go.

Rafael Furcal (SS)  REBOUND -  I’m a believer.  That ankle injury was something from which he just never recovered.  He isn’t that old, and is still fast as hell.  His BA was down, but not below acceptable levels and he stole bases when he could.  Even with this crazy down year he was a source of steals at a thin position.  If he can put up stats halfway ‘06 and ‘07 he will once again be an attractive option in your infield.  102-.284-10-52-39

Troy Glaus (3B) BOXED OUT-  Plagued by injuries, linked to performance enhancers, a batting average that will hurt your team, and fading power numbers.  For you math majors out there the equation looks like this;  INJ(ROID+PWR) - BA = SHIT.  Even if he is able to get that power back up to 30HR levels, his average is going to take away from your team.  That is assuming he can stay on the field.  He is now 32 years old.  Dreams of him approaching his former league-leading power numbers should be dead.  88-.245-29-89-2

Manny Ramirez (OF) REBOUND- Working out like a madman this off-season it seems like Manny might actually be interested in baseball again this year.  That’s all I really need to know.  If he cares and plays through (what have been perceived to be) minor injuries he could easily put up top 5 outfielder stats.  100-.315-38-125-1

Paul Konerko  (1B) REBOUND -  Man were the White Sox bad last year.  Perhaps no one on the team saw a more dramatic drop in their stats than Konerko.  He seems to have a year like this every few.  Just when he is ready to establish himself at the top of his position, he drops the ball.  He isn’t all that old, so a rebound is fairly likely especially now that Nick Swisher is in town to back him up.  90-.275-32-109-0

Vernon Wells (OF) REBOUND-  There is simply too much talent here to write off.  We have seen what he is able to do in a good year and many believe he is capable of even more.  Perhaps it was the weight of the huge contract he signed.  Either way, the good Wells should return to form this season.  100-.289-30-102-8

Andruw Jones (OF) BOXED OUT-  Sure the new team may help some, but really Jones wasn’t that great to begin with.  A batting average liability in his good years, last year was god-awful.  He is going to have that much less around him on the Dodgers so RBIs will now be a challenge as well.  He is still young enough to have a resurgence, but until some hitting coach somewhere rebuilds his swing it isn’t going to happen.  Have you ever seen him when he gets fooled on an outside breaking pitch?  I can’t believe that isn’t the only pitch he ever sees.  Look for a some improvement over last year, but not enough to qualify as a rebound to former levels.  98-.255-32-100-3

Carlos Zambrano (SP) REBOUND-  What a roller coast ride the Big Z took us on last year.  A terrible, I mean unbelievably terrible start to the season ruined his numbers for the rest of the year.  Yeah, he had a great stretch in the middle somewhere when he was almost unhittable, but again at the end of the season he hurt us.  His mental state is by far the biggest variable since his stuff is outstanding.  If he gets down on himself or angry while he pitches, he just isn’t as good.  Just ask Michael Barrett.  I’m betting that as he ages he is going to get better and stronger mentally.  This could easily be where the worm turns.  18-5, 3.23, 1.19, 202K

Well folks, it looks like Johan Santana is going to be a New York Met.  First the Red Sox start winning, now this.  God help us all. 

SP-  Now we get to the hardest part of fantasy baseball.  Pitchers are so hard to predict from year to year that only the true cream of the crop are worth of top dollar.  When you are paying for starters, it is important to remember that the reliability of health is just as, if not more, important as what they do when they are healthy.  If anyone questions this, go ahead and draft Rich Harden for too much money just as I did last season and you will feel the pain (see also: Mark Prior).  My top tier of starters is very very small.  Santana, Peavy, Webb.  Long gone are the days of Big Unit, Pedro, and Clemens being the studs.  Now they don’t even fit into the second tier.  This top tier have not only a track record of great ratios and Ks, but their health has been relatively good through their careers.  They can carry a team in the ratios, making up for the terrible start you get from your 6th starter every other week.  You will have to pay in order to get them, but go right ahead.  You will see the bargain when pitchers with half the value go for 3/4 of the price.  While wins are nice and can be predicted within a certain amount of error, it is not something that can be assured.  Therefore, I give very little weight to wins totals from the previous year.  The second tier is also very attractive, but it contains a lot of names that either haven’t broken through, haven’t put up great numbers for a couple straight years, have a history of injury, are getting old, or just aren’t quite at the level of greatness the first tier provides.  Sabathia, Lackey, Bedard, Oswalt, Halladay, Beckett, Haren, Smoltz, C.Young, Hamels, Harang, C.Zambrano, Kazmir, and Dice-K.  All are good prospects and most will serve well as the ace of your team.  But they aren’t the safe, sure bet that the top three are.  Rest assured that at least a couple of them will be as good as the top guys, but again, the risk of not doing so decreases the price you should be willing to pay.  DO NOT PAY FOR THE UPSIDE OF THESE STARTERS.  You will overpay in 90% of cases. 

RP-  I hate closers.  I really do.  They seem to be the LEAST reliable part of any fantasy baseball team.  Unless you have the rare case of a team that has labeled a talent as “closer of the future” or an established stud these guys are inconsistent and tend to lose their jobs quickly.  While the top tier offers better ratios and ks than their lesser counterparts, it is the reliability that you are paying for at this position.  Thats it.  The advantage in Ks between a so-so closer and a stud is not great.  Neither is the better ratios in the 60 or so IP out of the 900+ IP your team puts up.  Who among the closers are going to keep their job for the entire season.  That is the real question when dealing with closers.  The top tier; Krod, Nathan, Putz, Papelbon, Rivera, Wagner, Saito, Jenks, and F.Cordero.  These guys have the job security necessary to justify their high price.  People will overpay for them ’cause they are sexy picks and very good ballplayers.  But the advantage in fantasy baseball is small over the second tier of closers.  Street, C.Cordero, Isringhausen, Valverde, Lidge, Jones, Hoffman, and Borowski.  All these guys could easily put up stats for your team that very closely resemble what the top guys will give you, but their lack of job security, injury history, or in Hoffman’s case age, squashes their price to a much more manageable level.  My advice?  Do your research and find bargains at this slot.  There will be several guys that finish the year with 20+ saves that go late or for under $10 in your draft.

SS-  Once upon a time, back in the year 1999, there were the “big three” fantasy shortstops.  Arod, Jeter, and Nomar.  Who would have thought that by 2008 Joe Torrewould have managed all three of them.  Just a funny thing.  Back to work!  Shortstop is certainly deeper than it was back then, and only one of the Big Three deserves to be mentioned (or is still eligible) when talking about fantasy shortstops.  The top tier looks like, H.Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins.  All three of these guys are going to pay nice dividends so long as they stay healthy.  All will give you at least some power.  All will steal you a bunch of bases.  All three are true five category studs.  If you have the number one pick in a snake draft, it would be hard not to consider taking Ramirez and possibly Reyes with that pick.  (You may be mocked if you do, but if that is your strategy, go for it!)  The drop to the second tier is pretty extreme, but there are plenty of good gambles there.  Jeter, Tejada, M.Young, JJ Hardy, Tulowitzki, Furcal, and Guillen are all able to put up numbers that we do not expect from a shortstop.  Of course, each one has their own specific reason for not being top tier material.  Jeter is getting old, Tulo and Hardy are still young with little track record, Tejada lies about using B-12 and may not be let back into the country.  But assuming that things stay pretty much the same all these players should have significant value in 2008.  They are NOT, however, worth anywhere near the same price as the top three.  So far in this review, this is the largest drop-off in value from the first tier to the second.  If you have ‘em cheap, go ahead.  DON’T pay expecting them to join the first tier for 2009, because it is likely none of them does that well.

OF-  Ah the outfield.  So many players of quality.  So many fakes too.  It is sometimes hard to tell which of these guys are going to be the real deal and which are going to be baseball’s version of the Oneders.  But we will just keep doin’ that thing we do, and trying to get the real deals.  The top tier; Holliday, Crawford, Vlad, Ichiro, Soriano, Beltran, Lee, Sizemore, and Berkman.  That may seem to be a pretty small top tier for a position with so many players, but that is really it.  Furthermore, I would like to point out that of those guys, Vlad is slowing down some and his name is among the first tier only because he hasn’t dropped that far yet.  His BA is awesome, his RBIs very good.  But he made his name as a 40-40 threat with high BA.  The sbs are all but gone, and the power seems to have lessened as well.  There is a big difference in the price I would pay for a .320-40-40 guy and one that goes .320-27-2.  Sorry Vlad, but you are now OVERRATED.  The second tier is much larger with tons of upside.  Surely several of those 2nd tier guys will join the first tier next season, but not being sure of which ones is what makes them less valuable and not worthy of the same price.  Man-Ram, Abreu, Magglio, Rios, V.Wells, Markakis, Granderson, Brynes, Hart, Andruw Jones, Pierre, Rios, and Hunter make up the second tier.  Most of these guys are either getting old, too young to have established a top tier track record, or in the case of Pierre a specialist that only helps in a couple of categories.  All are still valuable and worthy of protecting for the right price.  They are not worth paying for as if their return to or joining of the first tier is assured.  P.S. I did not put BJ Upton in this group because if you draft him here instead of in the IF, you are either stacked in the IF or are a moron.

DH-  Just a quick hit on DH.  Ortiz and Hafner are the only top guys with Ortiz clearly the best.  Thome and Sheffield are in the second tier and fading fast.

2B-  This seems to be a pretty deep position this year.  The top tier goes by my count Utley, Phillips, and Brian Roberts.  That is it.  Even among those guys, there is no question that Utley is the most sought after commodity.  While this is the case, his price is still based on upside.  We are all still waiting for him to put it all together in the same season.  The power, the huge average, the steals, and the RBI.  His breakout ‘06 campaign was great, but there is more coming.  Phillips has made great progress and rewarded his believers with a 30-30 season.  At 2B that is HUGE!!  Roberts offers another rare commodity, which is the potential for 50sbs at a thin(ish) position.  That is tough to drop.  In the second tier you find good players that are on the verge of putting up numbers that are first tier.  Robinson Cano, Dan Uggla, Ian Kinsler, and B.J. Upton. Imyself have a little man-crush on Ian Kinsler and have committed myself to protecting him for more than I would advise others to do so.  Anyone one of these three could take that next step forward and reach the upper tier.  In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if any one of them or all four do this year.  When it comes to these three guys, it is really going to come down to what price you have them for and what your team is lacking.  I would not blame anyone for taking a gamble that their guy will step up.

 3B- What a deep position huh?  It is flush with power and good hitters.  The thing that really makes it deep though is that the 2nd tier has a TON of guys that are reasonable bets to put up solid numbers.  Funny how at the deep positions you want to get at least one quality guy so you aren’t giving up any advantage you may get by having a great guy at a thin position.  Anyway.  The top tier consists of Arod, Wright, and Cabrera.  Now don’t get me wrong.  There are other guys that will put up great numbers and are certainly worth keeping.  But if you are going to pay the same price for a 2nd tier guy at this position, you are out of your mind.  A.Ramirez, Braun, Atkins, Figgins, Beltre, Zimmerman, C.Jones, and A.Gordon make up the second tier.  Certainly, I’d want to hold on to most of these guys so long as I hadn’t paid a ton to get them last year.  Braun might even be worth an extra couple bucks since he could turn out to be Pujolsian.  But without any doubt, there will be one or two of these guys that disappoint.  Jones could get hurt, Gordon could take a step back, or Figgins may lose some PT.  The production of that top tier is not only a sure bet (barring injury), but the level of production is so high that I would find it impossible to drop any of them at almost any price.

So that time of year has come where keeper-leaguers are looking at their rosters wondering which of their guys are worthy of keeping.  What some GMs, if not most, don’t really understand is that the price at which you would have to keep them is the primary issue.  You will talk to some GMs and they will say, “But he hit 25 Hrs at SS, hes a no brainer!”.  Well thats fine unless it is going to cost you $38 to keep him.  There are keepers, there are bargains, and there are keepers that are bargains.  Knowing the difference between them can save you a bunch of cash.  The goal obviously is to obtain as many keepers that are bargains as you can from year to year.  This will maximize your cash, while still giving you talent to build a winning team around.  Over the next few days I’ll go over all the positions in order to highlight the guys you should be focusing on when making these decisions.

Catcher-  A thin position at the top, but after that a lot of the same.  Martin and Martinezare really the only two no-brainers at this position.  Having either one offers you a real advantage over the majority of the league which is thinking, “I’ll get two cheap catchers since they don’t really matter anyway.”  Hey, they could be right.  A smart GM could find two quality guys with upside for relatively little money.  Catchers are beat on all year long, so it is true that it is a dangerous position to invest heavily in.  But if you can get one of these two guys for a reasonable price they can pay real dividends.  The next group at catcher can be tempting.  Mauer, McCann, Posada have all been kept in the past, and all have the potential to render same kind of value that the top group does.  I’ll tell ya, at least one of them will.  The trick is not to pay the same price as you would have to in order to get Martin or Martinez.  If you see the top tier as having  a 90% chance of putting up the numbers you expect, then this group is closer to 75%.  So pay accordingly.  There are a bunch of sleepers that we will get into in later articles, but for keeper purposes, these are the guys that really matter.

1B-  This position is tricky.  There is a lot of upside and power is a sexy thing that can draw a GM into taking chances on upside.  It also sucks to get caught without at least one real power guy that you can depend on for 35ish Hrs or more.  My top tier consists of Pujols, Fielder, Howard, Teixeira, Berkman, andMorneau.  There are certainly other guys that have the potential to join that group based on what they have done in the past, but these are the guys worth the big bucks.  Big power with a high percentage chance to do what you think they will.  Certainly, the second tier also can put up great numbers, and I’m sure that some of them will outshine some of the top tier in the coming year.  I would not, however, pay the same for; Pena, Konerko, D.Lee, A. Gonzalez, or Delgado.  Whether it is age, inconsistency, or injury problems, they all have significantly lesser chance to put up top tier stats.  If you can keep them for cheap, then go right ahead.  But if you paid for Konerko or Delgado based on their numbers when at their prime you should let them go and try to get them cheaper in the draft.

I will be going over the rest of the positions over the next few days.  Feel free to post comments and opinions on these players and what you think are their chances of producing at keeper type levels.

Well guys, the time has arrived.  I feel like a kid in a candy store.  It is here.  One of the greatest days in a baseball fanatic’s year.  It makes me want to run into the magazine store much like Billy Madison raced to his mailbox.  But no, it isn’t “Nudy Magazine Day” (though who doesnt love that day too).  It is the day on which fantasy baseball publications are available to us all.  Some are good, some are bad, but all give us little tidbits of information on players we have been anxious to learn about.  Some new insight, some new projections, some new perspective which maybe we weren’t aware of.  Each new year brings us a crop of new rookies to look at and a whole list of boom/bust type players that we will argue at length about with our competitors.  Who are you protecting this year?  Me?  Well I wasn’t going to keep this guy, but hey, look what this magazine says about him!!  Cheatsheets, rookie reports, rebounds, busts, breakouts, position battles, prospects, and lineups all available to us for the ever so cheap price of $6.99 a shot.

Now don’t get me wrong.  I love online advice.  If I didn’t I surely wouldn’t be writing online.  But there is something about being able to have a source that you believe in.  Something tangible that you can carry with you on the bus.  Something that you can underline, highlite, and scribble notes on.  Something that you can bring with you into the bathroom for those long trips and never get tired of reading.  Personally, I buy at least three every year, usually the same three.  At the risk of outing my primary source of pre-season info, I feel I must recommend my favorite to the masses.  I have bought one every single year for the last 7 years.  It has by far the most player profiles and the most in depth coverage by fantasy experts that I have come to think of as family.  It is The Fantasy Baseball Guide2008 - Professional Edition.  There are other ones that I will read and certainly respect.  The Fantasy Baseball Index for example is also a quality source.  But The Guideis my baseball Bible.  That source where I have found so many sleepers and breakouts.  The place where you can find that name that makes other people in your league say “who?”.  AAAAAHHHHHHH!!!  What a feeling! 

So go!!  Go now!! Go get your baseball season underway.  Hooray!  It is BASEBALL MAGAZINE DAY!!!

We are currently in the void.  Nothingness.  Wasted time in which the fantasy addict rolls around on the floor like a junkie in need of a fix.  Our fantasy superbowls are over.  March Madness is still over a month away.  Baseball season seems like a hazy far away dream.  An oasis in this fantasy desert that may or may not be real.  Player updates and moves are few and far between.  The only silver lining in this dark stormy cloud is that there is the football post-season to keep our sporting minds from rotting out of our skulls.  Yes, its the January and February void. 

But then!  What light from yonder window breaks?  It is the sun.  The warm light of baseball has found a crack!  Magazines will soon be published.  online draft guides will be available, and the writers of Rotobuzz slowly come out of their long winter slumber.  Coming soon, the ‘08 baseball season coverage from Rotobuzz.com.